Not many changes to talk about. I've extended the 4 - 8 region south a bit over western MA, and also have expanded the 8 - 16 + region west and south. I may end up adding a 16 - 24 region in my final forecast as this could turn out to be quite a snowstorm for northern New England, but I have low confidence on amounts higher than 18 inches right now. At the moment, confidence is growing for widespread snowfalls over a foot across northern NY, into central and northern VT and NH and into western ME.
Storm snow accumulation forecast map for New England:
Snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 1900 2/28/07): 5" - 7"
Ice accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 1900 2/28/07): .2" - .3"
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Alert map: flood and snow alerts
I thought it was interesting and wanted to note the intermingling of the flood watch and winter storm watch. As spring comes closer, that flood watch area will begin to include us.
As I've mentioned before, and I'd just like to emphasize now, this storm will have a very high amount of moisture associated with it. The flood watch areas can expect 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, and parts of the winter storm watch areas could receive up to a foot and a half of snow.
Flooding concerns
This latest storm will be the first of 2007 to present flooding issues to the northeast. Temperatures will likely be cold enough north of the Mass Pike so that we won't have to deal with any flooding, let alone rain. However, south of the Mass Pike, QPF's with this storm are going to range between 1.5 inches and 3.0 inches. Plus there is a snowpack of 2 to 8 inches. Flood watches have been issued for portions of southern NY state and western CT.
WINTER STORM WATCH
A winter storm watch has been issued for Cheshire County, NH and is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday morning.
Details on the watch have been posted in the winter weather outlook page.
Stay tuned!
Details on the watch have been posted in the winter weather outlook page.
Stay tuned!
Evening Taunton AFD
000
FXUS61 KBOX 282051
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIP TYPE AND INTENSITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOOK A
BLEND OF THE MOS VALUES FOR MINS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY THURS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY GETS CRANKING THURSDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WESTERN ZONES
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES OWING TO VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 285K TO 300K
LAYER.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINING TO
THE WEST...THINKING THAT LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE
2 WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BEFORE RUSH HOUR FRIDAY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE
AREAS...PERHAPS A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 2
TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN THE MASS PIKE AND ROUTE 2. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-95...INCLUDING NORTHERN CT...EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/RAIN SHOULD OCCUR QUITE QUICKLY.
FOR NORTHWESTERN MASS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WE FEEL
THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP
OF THE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE RUSH HOUR FRIDAY
MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR
PORTIONS OF COUNTIES IN MASSACHUSETTS: EXTREME NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN WORCESTER...FRANKLIN...HAMPSHIRE. IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF HILLSBOROUGH AND ALL OF CHESHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...
A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH WILL BE WINDING DOWN AROUND MIDDAY...AS DRY SLOT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINES WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWS CLIMBING TO +1.0.
GFS IS FARTHER S WITH AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG
SOUTH COAST...WITH NAM FARTHER N ACRS CT/RI AND MUCH OF MA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. GGEM FARTHER NORTHWEST LIKE THE NAM. A LOT
OF CENTERS AROUND THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE FIELD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN
TRACK OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...THINK SURFACE LOW AND QPF WILL TRACK FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS CT/RI AND MUCH OF MA PER THE NAM AND GGEM. THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE QPF
ACROSS HILLY TERRAIN OF CT AND MA.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN
FLOODING FRI MORNING....WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
REGARDING WINDS FRI...LOW RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS GIVEN STRENGTH (60KT AT 925 AND 80 KT AT 850MB) OF LOW
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER LOCAL STUDY FOR SOUTHEAST WIND CASES INDICATES
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET NEEDS TO BE ABOUT 10-15 KT STRONGER. IN
ADDITION...COLD NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SST IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH
STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CREATE A STEEP
INVERSION. THUS...MIXING/GUSTINESS WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A LOW RISK OF
GRADIENT/SUSTAINED WIND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA /35 KT/ ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE HIGH END
WIND ADVISORY WITH WINDS OF 30-40 MPH...MAINLY SUSTAINED WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN DRIES OUT IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA
BEHIND DEPARTING INITIAL WAVE. THUS...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CT/MA AND NH AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS. BIG DILEMMA IS FOR TUE...AS MODELS RELOAD JET ENERGY INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST CANADA TROF WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
MON/MON NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF WAS MOST BULLISH WITH COLD SURGE...LIMITING
HIGHS TUE IN THE 20S! HOWEVER...12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF AND IS
SLIGHTLY WARMER. 12Z GFS REMAINS FLATTEST HERE...WITH 12Z GGEM IN
BETWEEN. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX GUID BUT WARMER THAN HPC GUID.
BY WED...TEMPS MODERATE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z ON THURSDAY.
ANY BROKEN STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURS NITE. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT OR GALE
FORCE WINDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS VERY LATE 3RD
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FLAGS ATTM.
FRIDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST FRI EVENING AND NIGHT.
SAT...MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUN AND MON...MODEST WEST WINDS WITH A LOW RISK OF WEST-NORTHWEST
GALES LATE MON NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008-010-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...EKSTER
MARINE...NOCERA/EKSTER
WINTER STORM WATCH
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007
...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST STATES TONIGHT AND
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
MAZ002>004-008-010-026-NHZ011-012-015-010500-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0003.070302T0000Z-070302T1700Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...AYER...
JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
354 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST STATES TONIGHT AND
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING'S RUSH HOUR. BEFORE THIS
CHANGEOVER OCCURS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL. UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE THEREAFTER. THIS
COULD POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A TREACHEROUS FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR 8 OR MORE INCHES
IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD...OR A DANGEROUS MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007
ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>008-011000-
BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-BOSTON HARBOR-BRISTOL-
BUZZARDS BAY-CAPE COD BAY-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NANTUCKET MA TO MARTHAS VINEYARD MA TO BLOCK
ISLAND RI TO MONTAUK NY SOUTHEAST TO 20NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NANTUCKET SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-NORTHERN WORCESTER-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-VINEYARD SOUND-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-
WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-
406 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
THURSDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR WINTER STORM WATCH STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH MAY LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS MAY
ALSO YIELD A SLOW MORNING COMMUTE FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY.
$$
NOCERA
Wednesday, February 28, 2007 Forecast
Sunny skies will boost temperatures to near 40 today. It will be a very nice day, similar to the end of yesterday which featured clearing skies and light winds. Tonight, temperatures will drop to the coldest we've
Tomorrow will see increasing clouds out ahead of a strong storm in the Great Lakes region. Highs will be forced down a little in the mid 30's. Snow will enter the region early Friday morning, and fall heavily at times through 10am. The low Friday morning will be in the mid 20's. Precipitation will change to freezing rain late Friday morning and continue through 4pm. The storm will end with a change back to a sleet / snow mix. My current snow accumulation forecast is 4 to 7 inches plus around a quarter inch of icing possible.
Temperatures will probably reach the highest for the week on Saturday. Temperatures will rise out ahead of the Great Lakes low into the low 40's. The average high for 3/3 is 38F. A high temperature of 42 would tie for the highest since January 13th when highs reached 48F.
There is even a chance of showers on Saturday as a weak frontal boundary crosses the region. This chance will continue through Saturday Night as snow showers.
Sunday, temperatures will fall back a little, into the upper 30's. Much colder air arrives Monday and Tuesday as highs stuggle to reach the low 30's and upper 20's respectively. Another weak disturbance (bringing also reinforcing cold air) could bring a chance of snow showers to the region Tuesday, but that chance is minimal so I didnt include it in the forecast.
Long term:
The new cold will last through next weekend, before a developing positive AO and NAO send temperatures averaging 4 to 7 degrees above average through the end of March. See yesterday's post for more details.
Second forecast for 3/1 - 3/3
A major winter storm will affect central and northern New England Thursday Night through Saturday Morning. Precipitation will begin as snow for all of SNE Thursday Night. Snow will continue past dawn in SW NH and NW MA, however will quickly change to sleet and freezing rain south of the Mass Pike as mid level temperatures rise above freezing. Snow accumulation of 1 - 2 inches will still be possible before the change-over in parts of CT, RI and SE MA. Here in Keene, the heavy accumulation once hyped for Thursday Night is now not looking as extreme. The warming of the mid levels could present some dry slotting complications. We may avoid this, but it is a short term forecasting factor that can only be speculated right now. At this point, accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will still be possible by Friday morning in Keene. A change-over will occur later in the morning to freezing rain and sleet. Right now, I think that we wont have to deal with any plain rain mixing in. Temperatures at the surface will be right around freezing Friday afternoon, so all precipitation will stay in frozen form. Precipitation will change back to snow and sleet Friday evening, and light snow will taper off by midnight Saturday. Additional accumulation of 2 to 3 inches is possible.
As for total snow accumulation, MOS data has decreased the accumulation forecast significantly down to 2 to 3 inches. I'm going to stay up in the range because higher accumulations based on high QPF supported by the GFS, NAM, and EURO. The NWS is also going with 4 to 8 inches.
Ice accumulation at least up to advisory level is possible Friday afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet will fall steady from 10am through 4pm and could accumulation up to a quarter inch of ice accretion.
NWS is discussing the issuance of winter storm watches for NW zones of SNE. I think we can be expecting watches issued by the evening shift today.
12z Model discussion:
The EURO and the GFS are both in the same camp with this storm: on the east side. The GFS has less QPF forecasted (1.50" to 1.75") than the NAM maxing out at 2.50" to 3.00". However, the NAM is about 100 miles further west with the low and takes it north up the CT River Valley. This puts 850mb 0C about 50 miles north of the GFS which draws the line along the NH/MA border.
Short term discussion:
The low pressure responsible for the moisture transfer to the coast is currently located in Kansas. The low will move northeast through tomorrow. A disturbance out of Canada will interact with the low and enhance the precipitation associated with the system. The low will center itself over Lake Michigan by tomorrow evening. While the low stalls, precipitation will continue to slowly inch eastward. Secondary development over the Delmarva peninsula will move north-northeast toward the region Friday morning. The track of this low will determine the type of precipitation that falls during this storm. The track will be influenced by the amount of energy that is transfered from the primary low over the Great Lakes. If the pressure falls along the coast are greater, then a more eastward track could occur, but otherwise we could see the coastal track north through CT. Right now the NWS is expecting a track across I-95 in SE Mass. Nowcasting time starts tomorrow afternoon as we can start watching the pressure falls. The HPC isnt expecting a low to form until 12z Friday. I'll post the latest HPC discussion right after this.
Storm snow accumulation forecast map for New England:
(Map correction: "valid: 12z Thursday 3/1 - 12z Saturday 3/3")
Snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 0830 2/28/07): 4" - 7"
Ice accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 0830 2/28/07): .1" - .3"
As for total snow accumulation, MOS data has decreased the accumulation forecast significantly down to 2 to 3 inches. I'm going to stay up in the range because higher accumulations based on high QPF supported by the GFS, NAM, and EURO. The NWS is also going with 4 to 8 inches.
Ice accumulation at least up to advisory level is possible Friday afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet will fall steady from 10am through 4pm and could accumulation up to a quarter inch of ice accretion.
NWS is discussing the issuance of winter storm watches for NW zones of SNE. I think we can be expecting watches issued by the evening shift today.
12z Model discussion:
The EURO and the GFS are both in the same camp with this storm: on the east side. The GFS has less QPF forecasted (1.50" to 1.75") than the NAM maxing out at 2.50" to 3.00". However, the NAM is about 100 miles further west with the low and takes it north up the CT River Valley. This puts 850mb 0C about 50 miles north of the GFS which draws the line along the NH/MA border.
Short term discussion:
The low pressure responsible for the moisture transfer to the coast is currently located in Kansas. The low will move northeast through tomorrow. A disturbance out of Canada will interact with the low and enhance the precipitation associated with the system. The low will center itself over Lake Michigan by tomorrow evening. While the low stalls, precipitation will continue to slowly inch eastward. Secondary development over the Delmarva peninsula will move north-northeast toward the region Friday morning. The track of this low will determine the type of precipitation that falls during this storm. The track will be influenced by the amount of energy that is transfered from the primary low over the Great Lakes. If the pressure falls along the coast are greater, then a more eastward track could occur, but otherwise we could see the coastal track north through CT. Right now the NWS is expecting a track across I-95 in SE Mass. Nowcasting time starts tomorrow afternoon as we can start watching the pressure falls. The HPC isnt expecting a low to form until 12z Friday. I'll post the latest HPC discussion right after this.
Storm snow accumulation forecast map for New England:
(Map correction: "valid: 12z Thursday 3/1 - 12z Saturday 3/3")
Snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 0830 2/28/07): 4" - 7"
Ice accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12 Thursday 3/1 through 12z Saturday 3/3 (Issued at 0830 2/28/07): .1" - .3"
NWS going with 4 to 8 in Keene
Special Weather Statment:
Taunton NWS Area Forecast Discussion:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>005-282100-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...
WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...
WARWICK...BRISTOL
307 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007
...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MESSY MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE THE SNOW TO SLEET IN THE PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. TOTAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
2 INCHES. ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA MAY SEE THE SLEET CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. IF THIS
OCCURS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME VERY ICY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
FURTHER NORTH...THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO SLEET BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
SLEET WILL CHANGE TO A WINDSWEPT RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 40. UNLIKE THE VALENTINES DAY STORM...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE FLASH FREEZE THAT
OCCURRED WITH THE LAST STORM.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
BORDER. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SLEET BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ALSO MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 8
INCHES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE
STORM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. IF
THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH
HOUR...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-95 SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
$$
FRANK
Taunton NWS Area Forecast Discussion:
000
FXUS61 KBOX 281200
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007
.MORNING UPDATE...
WE SENT OUT A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT A LITTLE FASTER
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FLURRIES NOW CONFINED TO
CAPE/ISLANDS AND WILL BE EXITING REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
SCT FLURRIES AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO CAPE/ISLANDS AT 12Z AND
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT BY MIDDAY. PATCHY FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT CU TODAY AND SKC TNGT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007/
..A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MESSY MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KBOX RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF FLURRIES MOVG ACRS NE CT...RI AND SE
MA ASSOCD WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE S OF THE COAST. THE
FLURRIES LINE UP WELL WITH 850-700 MB MSTR AS DEPICTED BY GFS WHICH
HANGS ON TO THIS MSTR ACRS SE ZONES THRU 12Z BEFORE DRYING MOVES IN
BY 18Z. WE WILL MENTION CHC MORNING FLURRIES FOR RI/SE MA THIS
MORNING...OTRW WE EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE S OF REGION THIS AFTN BUT CROSS SECTIONS ARE DRY SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH THIS FNT. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES REACHING UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRES ACRS SE CANADA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SWD ACRS LAKES WILL
MOVE EWD INTO SNE LATE TNGT INTO THU BRINGING A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WITH NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND. EXPECT MOCLR SKIES TNGT WITH
MINS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 FAR NW TO 20-25 NEAR THE COAST.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOW ONSET OF MSTR APPROACHING FROM WEST DURING THU
ENSURING A DRY DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON
THU...SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS WITH MAXES
GENERALLY 35-40.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE A CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AND SPAWN A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY PLAYER FOR OUR MESSY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON AN INLAND TRACK TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A FEW GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT PAINT A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE SNOW TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA PIKE THAN WE ARE ADVERTISING WITH THIS FORECAST. `
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE REASONING BELOW WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS.
SNOW SHOULD OVER SPREAD THE INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH
THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD MORNING. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A BIT FAST
WHEN COMPARING TO THE OTHER MODELS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ALLOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY WARM. WE USUALLY PREFER TO
TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN FORECASTING SNOW AMOUNTS
UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE REASONING FOR THAT IS BECAUSE IT
ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL LAYER OF THE MID LEVELS TO WARM AND CHANGE
THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVER TO SLEET. IN ADDITION...WE TEND TO
DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THESE
SITUATIONS. THIS RESULTS IN THE SNOW GROWTH RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW
IDEAL LEVELS. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THE ONE THING WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH IS IF THE SLEET
TRANSITIONS OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
FOR A TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES EVEN IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD
COME UP TO AROUND FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AS UNLIKE THE VALENTINES
DAY STORM WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH SHALLOW COLD AIR. WITH THE EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE THIS SHOULD PREVENT A MAJOR ICE STORM...BUT WE CAN
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN YET.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION HERE IS OUR BEST ESTIMATE AND SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN THE
HARTFORD...TO PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON AREA GENERALLY EXPECTING JUST A
HALF TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN. NOW
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD AIR IS TRAPPED THERE FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COME UP TO AROUND FREEZING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT SHOULD PREVENT A MAJOR
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY SHOULD INCH ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR BOSTON...WE EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WILL CHANGE TO
SLEET IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY NOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL UP INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
ACROSS NORTHERN MA...WE EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WE
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BY LATE MORNING WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. SLEET MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE THE MERCURY INCH ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
TO ALL RAIN. THE WORCESTER HILLS MAY SEE THE MERCURY HANG AROUND
FREEZING...BUT HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PREVENT MAJOR
PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING RAIN BASED ON OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WHERE WE WILL FORECAST 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
SLEET. EVEN HERE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE FORECASTING MARGINAL WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SOUTHERN NH...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT. WE
LIKE TO ONLY ISSUE WATCHES FOR 4TH PERIOD EVENTS WHEN CONFIDENCE IS
VERY HIGH. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL
DATA BEFORE ISSUING ANY WATCHES.
UNLIKE THE VALENTINES STORM...SHALLOW COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RACE DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE
FLASH FREEZE THAT OCCURRED WITH THE LAST SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS. THIS DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A BIG DEAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 50...SO NOT REALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND MUCH
WARMER SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY. INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
WE HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWEST CIGS THIS
MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO KPVD/KHYA/KACK WHERE BRIEF MVFR AND
FLURRIES PSBL...WITH MID CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACRS SNE. SKC
TNGT.
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU WITH
WINDS UNDER 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
IN THE LONG TERM... ALTHOUGH AN INVERSION WILL BE IN
PLACE...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 35 TO 40 KNOT
WIND GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS ON FRIDAY. UNDERCUT WNA MODEL A BIT
WITH THE INVERSION...BUT STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 10
FEET OVER OUR OUTER-WATERS WITH A GOOD FETCH.
FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WILL NOW BE AVAILABLE 12 MONTHS OUT OF
THE YEAR. THE PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ROUTINELY TWICE A DAY WITH THE
EARLY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FORECAST
WILL ALSO BE UPDATED ANYTIME CONDITIONS WARRANT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KJC
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
A mild month of March ahead.
The Review:
We are wrapping up February on a mild note, however still not above average. In fact, the last time the high temperature rose above average was on the 20th (average: 39F, actual: 41F), and the only other time before that was on the 2nd (average: 33F, actual: 37F). For the month of February so far, the high temperature has averaged 27.0F, which is 7.6 degree F under the February 50 year average of 34.6F. While the records are still being examined, in many areas in the Northeast and Ohio Valley this February has marked the biggest turn-around in temperature in history. The months of December ('06) and January ('07) were extraordinarily warm if you will recall, with the high temperature averaging over 8 degrees above the normal for December and over 12 degrees for the first two weeks of January. Then the weather underwent two changes, the second being the most drastic. The first one came on the 15th of January behind a storm that coated Keene, NH in a quarter inch of ice. The temperatures moderated somewhat closer to average and that lasted for two weeks, which did allow some light accumulating snow events to occur. January still ended with the high temperature nearly 3 degrees above the monthly norm. February greeted us with our first notable snowfall event. Groundhog's Day (on which one bold little groundhog said winter was ending early) featured a coastal storm that went well south of the region, but a northern storm that relit the hopes of snow-lovers by dumping 4.4" of snow that night. What happened behind the storm was more important however, as the AO finally dove into the negatives allowing a surge of arctic air which threatened records all across the region. It also opened the gates for one of the largest Lake Effect Snow events in history to occur in western NY state. Keene ducked under zero a couple of times and highs stuggled into the low teens a couple of times, but the general gist of the temperatures from the 2nd through the 20th was highs around 20 and lows around 5. On the 20th, Mother Nature realized "Whoa, I can't keep doing this. I only have a month left to warm up to spring." So down went the PNA, which meant troughiness in the west, and a build up of a SE ridge. Even though the ridge pushed the arctic air out, New England still kept hold of the cold as the AO refused to budge and in fact bottomed out at -2SD on the 20th again. By the 22nd, the AO started to rise back toward neutral, and at this point it is just above -1SD. Oh and by the way, the NAO stayed neutral (within +/-0.5SD) since the 29th of January, so blocking was minimal through the month.
The Forecast:
Temperature:
Temperatures won't move too much as we approach the start of March. As you might have already figured out, a significant storm will affect us on Friday. Behind the storm, temperatures will stay warm as a low to our west continues to boost temperatuers. Saturday we could peak in the low 40's again, but nothing far from average (as that IS the average). However, a slow return to cooler temperatures will ensue on Sunday, and by Monday we will be seeing highs back to the low to mid 30's and possibly not excaping the 20's by late next week. This cold will hold strong (enhanced by a rising PNA and a breaking of the SE ridge) through the 7th. By the second week of March, a steadily rising AO and a slow resurgence of the NAO will create a ridge over the eastern two thirds of the country. In fact, most of the nation will be above average through the middle of March. Here in New England, we will be on the eastern edge of the heat dome but will still see highs averaging 4 to 6 degrees above normal through the 20th. A drop in the NAO will mean moderating temperatures as we close the book on March. By April, we may actually see a genuine negative NAO (a little late if you are a fan of nor'easters) but it may still by on time to help winter keep a grip on northeast US through mid April. We may even see one last 4+" snow event in April (which of course isnt that uncommon, but I dont want to jump the gun on 6+).
Storminess:
The start of March will be stormy... as we can already tell by looking at the medium range forecast period. Another storm behind this week's event could add to the snowpack a little, and then we will likely have another storm around the 7th as the pattern goes warm. I have my doubts on anything significant coming with this storm. As I see it, we'll get some showers and some sleet, and then the warmth comes. With the warmth will also arrive a drier pattern. As I had said before, we will be on the eastern edge of the ridge, this means that even with warmth, we will be denied access to the moisture load in the south. All the storminess during this period will occur in the southern plains and Ohio Valley, in association with the southern jet. The northern jet, which will be lifting into Canada will not have admittence to any of the Gulf moisture because it will stay relatively flat even out west. In New England especially, it will be dry because the storm flow will be out of the west and northwest which might pull some dry shortwaves out of Canada, but all passing north of the region. By late March, the NAO will decide it wants to try being negative for a change and finally plant a trough over the east. This will open up the southern storm flow, but the focus will still be to our south in the Mid Atlantic region. We will however have access now to the a renewed flow of storms across Canada and into New England. One of these, in fact, will probably be the storm to instigate the pattern change between March 24th and April 3rd. April will see average precipitation to start, probably some a few light to moderate wet snow events through the 10th. The storm flow will start drying out again however as we enter the middle of April.
National forecast:
We are wrapping up February on a mild note, however still not above average. In fact, the last time the high temperature rose above average was on the 20th (average: 39F, actual: 41F), and the only other time before that was on the 2nd (average: 33F, actual: 37F). For the month of February so far, the high temperature has averaged 27.0F, which is 7.6 degree F under the February 50 year average of 34.6F. While the records are still being examined, in many areas in the Northeast and Ohio Valley this February has marked the biggest turn-around in temperature in history. The months of December ('06) and January ('07) were extraordinarily warm if you will recall, with the high temperature averaging over 8 degrees above the normal for December and over 12 degrees for the first two weeks of January. Then the weather underwent two changes, the second being the most drastic. The first one came on the 15th of January behind a storm that coated Keene, NH in a quarter inch of ice. The temperatures moderated somewhat closer to average and that lasted for two weeks, which did allow some light accumulating snow events to occur. January still ended with the high temperature nearly 3 degrees above the monthly norm. February greeted us with our first notable snowfall event. Groundhog's Day (on which one bold little groundhog said winter was ending early) featured a coastal storm that went well south of the region, but a northern storm that relit the hopes of snow-lovers by dumping 4.4" of snow that night. What happened behind the storm was more important however, as the AO finally dove into the negatives allowing a surge of arctic air which threatened records all across the region. It also opened the gates for one of the largest Lake Effect Snow events in history to occur in western NY state. Keene ducked under zero a couple of times and highs stuggled into the low teens a couple of times, but the general gist of the temperatures from the 2nd through the 20th was highs around 20 and lows around 5. On the 20th, Mother Nature realized "Whoa, I can't keep doing this. I only have a month left to warm up to spring." So down went the PNA, which meant troughiness in the west, and a build up of a SE ridge. Even though the ridge pushed the arctic air out, New England still kept hold of the cold as the AO refused to budge and in fact bottomed out at -2SD on the 20th again. By the 22nd, the AO started to rise back toward neutral, and at this point it is just above -1SD. Oh and by the way, the NAO stayed neutral (within +/-0.5SD) since the 29th of January, so blocking was minimal through the month.
The Forecast:
Temperature:
Temperatures won't move too much as we approach the start of March. As you might have already figured out, a significant storm will affect us on Friday. Behind the storm, temperatures will stay warm as a low to our west continues to boost temperatuers. Saturday we could peak in the low 40's again, but nothing far from average (as that IS the average). However, a slow return to cooler temperatures will ensue on Sunday, and by Monday we will be seeing highs back to the low to mid 30's and possibly not excaping the 20's by late next week. This cold will hold strong (enhanced by a rising PNA and a breaking of the SE ridge) through the 7th. By the second week of March, a steadily rising AO and a slow resurgence of the NAO will create a ridge over the eastern two thirds of the country. In fact, most of the nation will be above average through the middle of March. Here in New England, we will be on the eastern edge of the heat dome but will still see highs averaging 4 to 6 degrees above normal through the 20th. A drop in the NAO will mean moderating temperatures as we close the book on March. By April, we may actually see a genuine negative NAO (a little late if you are a fan of nor'easters) but it may still by on time to help winter keep a grip on northeast US through mid April. We may even see one last 4+" snow event in April (which of course isnt that uncommon, but I dont want to jump the gun on 6+).
Storminess:
The start of March will be stormy... as we can already tell by looking at the medium range forecast period. Another storm behind this week's event could add to the snowpack a little, and then we will likely have another storm around the 7th as the pattern goes warm. I have my doubts on anything significant coming with this storm. As I see it, we'll get some showers and some sleet, and then the warmth comes. With the warmth will also arrive a drier pattern. As I had said before, we will be on the eastern edge of the ridge, this means that even with warmth, we will be denied access to the moisture load in the south. All the storminess during this period will occur in the southern plains and Ohio Valley, in association with the southern jet. The northern jet, which will be lifting into Canada will not have admittence to any of the Gulf moisture because it will stay relatively flat even out west. In New England especially, it will be dry because the storm flow will be out of the west and northwest which might pull some dry shortwaves out of Canada, but all passing north of the region. By late March, the NAO will decide it wants to try being negative for a change and finally plant a trough over the east. This will open up the southern storm flow, but the focus will still be to our south in the Mid Atlantic region. We will however have access now to the a renewed flow of storms across Canada and into New England. One of these, in fact, will probably be the storm to instigate the pattern change between March 24th and April 3rd. April will see average precipitation to start, probably some a few light to moderate wet snow events through the 10th. The storm flow will start drying out again however as we enter the middle of April.
National forecast:
Major winter storm becoming more likely
The storm potential is looking better and better for Thursday Night through Friday Night. The latest NWS zone forecast has added the enhanced wording, "heavy snow accumulation" for Thursday Night AND "moderate snow accumulation" for Friday! One thing will be certain with this storm: very high QPF, maybe even higher than the Valentine's Day storm earlier this month.
Confidence levels:
>0.50" QPF ... 95%
>1.00" QPF ... 90%
>2.00" QPF ... 50%
>1.0" Snow ... 95%
>6.0" Snow ... 75%
>12.0" Snow ... 45%
>0.10" Icing ... 85%
>0.25" Icing ... 65%
>0.50" Icing ... 40%
If we get a colder solution with this storm (going with 15:1 snow ratios), we could get two feet easily. This will not happen, but with 12:1 snow ratios Thursday Night, before the change over, we could pick up a quick 6 inches of snow, and then a quarter inch of icing on top.
Special Weather Statement:
Taunton NWS Area Forecast Discussion:
Confidence levels:
>0.50" QPF ... 95%
>1.00" QPF ... 90%
>2.00" QPF ... 50%
>1.0" Snow ... 95%
>6.0" Snow ... 75%
>12.0" Snow ... 45%
>0.10" Icing ... 85%
>0.25" Icing ... 65%
>0.50" Icing ... 40%
If we get a colder solution with this storm (going with 15:1 snow ratios), we could get two feet easily. This will not happen, but with 12:1 snow ratios Thursday Night, before the change over, we could pick up a quick 6 inches of snow, and then a quarter inch of icing on top.
Special Weather Statement:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-280930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
339 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY AFTER A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...CAUSING AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO
RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS SPRINGFIELD...WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE.
THE CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR MORE QUICKLY FROM PROVIDENCE AND
BOSTON TO THE SOUTH COAST FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
FROM THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE...WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE AFFECTED BY SNOW...OR A COMBINATION
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
KEEP IN MIND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM. A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD LESSEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
WHILE A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WOULD BRING HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ONTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN.
PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
$$
JWD/MLE
Taunton NWS Area Forecast Discussion:
000
FXUS61 KBOX 271938
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
238 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
...BENIGN WEATHER BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT AND FRI...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY SHARP EDGE TO CLOUD DECK ACROSS MERRIMACK VALLEY OF SW NH AND
NE MA AND INTO IMMEDIATE BOSTON AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN ONTO CAPE
COD AS WELL. THIS CLEARING HAS BEEN PUSHING S DURING PAST FEW
HOURS... AND WE EXPECT IT TO EDGE A LITTLE FARTHER S THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH AND BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDINESS IS LOCKED IN FAIRLY WELL BUT AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW WHICH AFFECTED CT/RI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
HAVE DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES. MUCH OF THIS IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT
BEING DETECTED WELL BY RADAR...BUT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ON KENX AND
KBOX ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS IN CLEAR AIR MODE COMING OVER
BERKSHIRES AND INTO NORTHERN CT.
12Z MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH REGION...IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY TO RI AND SE
MA AS IT TRACKS JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ANY LIFT IS CERTAINLY
WEAK...IT WILL BE ABLE TO ACT UPON A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MOST OF REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND S OF MASS TURNPIKE. WE MAY SEE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
GIVE A DUSTING OF SNOW TO LOCATIONS NEAR S COAST AND ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY WHERE NAM/GFS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
QPF...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT OCCURRING IS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING CLEARING TO CT VALLEY TOWARD MIDDAY
AND TO COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WED
NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL 12Z GLOBAL/REGION MODELS AS WELL AS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG
PRIMARY LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES THURSDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM AT THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY LOW IS REASONABLY WELL-PROGGED
BY THE MODELS THE MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
THIS WILL MEAN A SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN SCENARIO
FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALL STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A PRETTY BIG QPF EVENT AS LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS LOOK QUITE GOOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD BY THIS LOW LEVEL JET
ON FAIRLY STEEP THETA SURFACES. THIS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIP TYPE IS THE BIG QUESTION HERE. WE'RE FAIRLY CERTAIN ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL START AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLUMN
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH. HOWEVER...THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY QUICK CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OMEGA VALUES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT ALL AREAS SEE A PRETTY GOOD
THUMP OF SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE THE
MOST SNOW...QUITE POSSIBLY WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA...BY
SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO RAIN/SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
ALL IN ALL...FRIDAY MORNING'S RUSH HOUR LOOKS TO BE QUITE MESSY
EVERYWHERE...AS A PLETHORA OF PRECIP TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE'RE
STILL 2.5 TO 3 DAYS OUT FROM THIS EVENT...SO ANY CHANGE IN LOW TRACK
WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP TYPES AND TIMING OF ONSET AND
CHANGEOVER. WENT WITH CAT POPS FOR ALL AREAS LATE THURS NITE AND FRI.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. USUALLY THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WON'T MIX
DOWN DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
NONETHELESS.
THE STEADY PRECIP CUTS OFF BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
MECHANISMS FOR FORCING MOVE OFFSHORE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...
18Z TAFS KEEP LOWEST CEILINGS /MVFR/ OVER KBAF/KORH/KBDL TERMINAL
AREAS INTO WED MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR TOWARD MIDDAY.
ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF MASS TURNPIKE
BUT WERE ONLY INCLUDED IN KHYA/KACK TAFS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THESE TERMINALS 06Z-12Z WED WITH VSBY 4-5SM...BUT PROBABILITY ON THAT
OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT REGION INTO
WED...THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A LIGHT W/NW COMPONENT WED
MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK 18Z WED TO 12Z THU... VFR. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON OUTER SE WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY SWELL KEEPS SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT 12Z
WAVEWATCH INDICATES. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
RANGE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD/EKSTER
Winter storm Thursday Night - Friday Night
Right now, the discussion on the storm on the main page should suffice, however I will post a more in-depth look at the storm later today or tomorrow. My first forecast map will be issued later today.
Stay tuned.
Stay tuned.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007 Forecast
Not much change in the forecast since yesterday. Last night we picked up 1.0" of snow. Flurries have continued fall through this morning. There are some scattered snow showers showing up on radar in NY state in association with a weak upper level low that will scoot across the region today. No additional accumulation is expected, but leave room for the possibility of a dusting.
Temperatures will reach the mid 30's today with no help from the sun. Tonight, temperatures will fall back to around 20. Tomorrow, skies will become partly cloudy. northwest flow behind the low will keep temperatures from reaching the low 40's, but the sun give highs a boost into the upper 30's to near 40. Tomorrow night, skies will clear up a bit more, and radiational cooling will drop lows down into the low teens. Thursday will feature increasing cloudiness as low pressure approaches from the Plains states. Highs will be kept to the mid 30's under cloudy skies.
Thursday Night, snow moves in. The GFS has trended toward a colder solution and the Euro is beginning to follow suit. The NWS has introduced enhanced wording including "moderate snow accumulation possible" for Thursday Night. Friday still looks like an icy mess. Precipitation will be in the form of sleet and snow through 6am, before changing to freezing rain later Friday morning. Right now, it appears that temperatures at the surface will at least be cold enough for all frozen precipitation. Closer to the coast, including Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and Boston, precipitation will probably change to rain for at least a couple of hours as temperatures reach 40. A change back to snow everywhere north of the Mass Turnpike will occur Friday evening, and we could pick up some additional light accumulation. Precipitation will continue through Saturday morning, changing to a mix of rain and snow before tapering off. Saturday will probably be the warmest day this week with temperatures reaching the low 40's as an enhanced southerly flow from the Great Lakes low kicks in. Still the same from yesterday, the precipitation type and snow accumulation will depend on the final track of the coastal low. This will depend on the amount of energy transfered from the Lakes low to the coastal. What we will have to watch (once the coastal low develops) are the pressure falls in both areas. The greater the pressure falls along the coast, the further east the low goes, the stronger the low gets, and the more snow we get. Right now, I'm thinking total snowfall of 3 to 6 inches with this storm. The GFSX MOS data gives Keene 6 inches. One thing is for sure, QPF is going to be high. Areas north and west of Concord, NH could get hit hard with over a foot of snow. So if we can get some colder air to work with, we could see that amount of snow from this storm too ... but at this point dont count on it.
Sunday and Monday, skies will remain mostly cloudy as the Great Lakes low lifts north of us, and continues to influence our weather. Temperatures will slowly drop back to the mid 30's by Monday as the southerly flow is cut off, and westerly flow kicks in.
Slippery conditions early this morning
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
502 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-271600-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
502 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...
ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS HAVE ACCUMULATED THIN LAYER OF ICE FROM
YESTERDAYS MELTED SNOWFALL WHICH HAS REFROZEN EARLY THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND HAS ACCUMULATED ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 11 AM ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.
MOTORISTS AND THOSE WALKING OUTDOORS THIS MORNING SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.
$$
STRAUSS
Monday, February 26, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007 Forecast
A very active weather pattern is in store for New England over the next week. The first system to talk about is a weak upper level low that will bring a chance of snow showers through tomorrow. Low pressure about 300 miles off the coast of Cape Cod dumped a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across RI, and central and eastern MA today. Keene has remained about 40 miles west of the precipitation throughout today and has therefore been sitting under a thick cloud layer with intermittent flurries. Flurries will continue through this evening, and could intensify to light snow after midnight. Currently on radar is a band of light to moderate snow extending from Toronto to Hartford. This area of snow will gradually lift northward, pushed by a low down in NC. The focus of accumulating snow will remain to our south and west, so not expecting much here, right now I'm thinking an inch to 1.5" by the time the snow wraps up tomorrow afternoon.
Warmer temperatures behind the frontal boundary that will lift north of the region tonight will help boost temperatures into the upper 30's to near 40 under mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday and the mid to upper 30's on Thursday.
Thursday, an area of low pressure will move south out of Canada and strengthen over the western Great Lakes region. This will continue to support warm temperatures over the region on Thursday. Skies will start off partly to mostly sunny but will cloud over by the afternoon as precipitation approaches from the west. A wet snow will likely start to fall by the late evening on Thursday. By Thursday Night, a secondary area of low pressure will have developed along the New Jersey coast and will begin to move north-northeast. The low will start to pull some energy from the Great Lakes low, and the amount of energy transfer (translating into pressure falls) will be the deciding factor on the track of the coastal low and the resulting precipitation type. Right now it appears a thick snow will continue to fall throughout the night Thursday, possibly accumulating 1 to 3 inches. On the current forecast track, the coastal low will head inland over SNE, bringing warm air into the upper levels of the atmosphere and changing precipitation to sleet and freezing rain in Keene on Friday morning. Areas within 30 miles of the coast will change to plain rain for a time Friday afternoon. Keene could see some ice accumulation before a change back to snow occurs Friday evening. Snow, possibly mixed with some sleet, will continue through Saturday morning and wind down by noontime. Total snow accumulations will greatly depend on the track of the low influencing the type of the precipitation. A larger energy transfer, a stronger coastal low, and a track further east could mean another large snowstorm for Keene with total snowfall over 6 inches. But a track further west, running inland, could result in an icy mess on Friday with an inch of slop to clean up Saturday morning.
It appears now that temperatures will rise to around 40 on Saturday as the Great Lakes low stays west and continues to draw warm air up into the region, but temperatures will moderate some on Sunday down into the mid 30's.
I'll post the long term outlook tomorrow. It will include the month of March and into early April.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
BLIZZARD OF 2007 REANALYSIS
Index:
- HPC Storm Summaries
- HPC Final Storm Summary
- Taunton, MA NWS Storm Summary
- SNE storm snow total maps
- Albany, NY NWS Storm Summary
- Albany, NY NWS Storm Page
- Snow depth after the storm
- Upton, NY NWS Storm Summary
HPC Storm Summaries:
- Storm Summary 11 issued at 15Z Thursday February 15, 2007
- Storm Summary 10 issued at 09Z Thursday February 15, 2007
- Storm Summary 9 issued at 03Z Thursday February 15, 2007
- Storm Summary 8 issued at 21Z Wednesday February 14, 2007
- Storm Summary 7 issued at 15Z Wednesday February 14, 2007
- Storm Summary 6 issued at 09Z Wednesday February 14, 2007
- Storm Summary 5 issued at 03Z Wednesday February 14, 2007
- Storm Summary 4 issued at 21Z Tuesday February 13, 2007
- Storm Summary 3 issued at 15Z Tuesday February 13, 2007
- Storm Summary 2 issued at 09Z Tuesday February 13, 2007
- Storm Summary 1 issued at 03Z Tuesday February 13, 2007
Final Storm Summary:
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 11 FOR MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST U.S. WINTER
STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007
...POWERFUL WINTER STORM PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MAINE.
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT.
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.
AT 9 AM EST...A 976 MILLIBAR...28.82 INCH...LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HOULTON MAINE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE STEADILY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END IN MAINE BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE LATEST NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS ARE SHOWING A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS
LINGERING ON THE EAST SIDES OF THE GREAT LAKES.
...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES AS OF 9 AM EST...
...KANSAS...
MARSHALL 11.7
MCDONALD 2 SW 10.0
CENTRALIA 9.0
MCDONALD 3 E 8.0
MCDONALD 1 S 8.0
BIRD CITY 8 SE 7.0
BREMEN 1 E 7.0
CONCORDIA 1 W 7.0
HADDAM 7.0
WILSON 7.0
WILSON LAKE 6.8
...NEBRASKA...
BURWELL 7.0
AUBURN 6.7
FAIRBURY 6.5
PAWNEE CITY 6.1
HEBRON 6.0
NELIGH 6.0
NELSON 6.0
WILBER 6.0
NEBRASKA CITY 5.7
RULO 5.6
...MISSOURI...
WEST QUINCY 9.0
PALMYRA 8.5
MEXICO 8.0
BOWLING GREEN 8.0
CENTER 8.0
NEW LONDON 8.0
QUINCY 8.0
PALMYRA 5 SW 8.0
CANTON 7.0
WELDON SPRING 6.0
WELLSVILLE 5.0
FULTON 5.0
ST. LOUIS 3.0
...IOWA...
KEOSAUQUA 6.5
SIOUX CITY 5.2
BURLINGTON 4.0
ALLERTON 4.0
BEACONSFIELD 4.0
BEDFORD 4.0
CLARINDA 4.0
LITTLE SIOUX 4.0
LORIMOR 4.0
DES MOINES 3.4
DAVENPORT 3.0
...ILLINOIS...
SPRINGFIELD 4 SW 15.8
URBANA 11.7
WILLOWBROOK 11.2
SPRINGFIELD 11.2
CLAYTON 10.0
WHITE HALL 10.0
CHICAGO MIDWAY AIRPORT 9.7
CHICAGO-NW SIDE 9.5
DANVILLE 9.5
...INDIANA...
WHITING 16.6
MILLERSBURG 13.0
HIGHLAND 9.7
HARTFORD CITY 7.5
SCHERERVILLE 7.1
BLUFFTON 6.0
SIMONTON LAKE 6.0
FORT WAYNE 6 N 6.0
INDIANAPOLIS 4.7
...OHIO...
CLEVELAND 15.0
SIDNEY 15.0
GALION 13.0
CELINA 10.0
YOUNGSTOWN 10.0
PEPPER PIKE 9.7
RUSHSYLVANIA 9.5
ZANESFIELD 8.0
SPRINGFIELD 8.0
GREENVILLE 8.0
CINCINNATI 4.0
COLUMBUS 4.0
...MICHIGAN...
MATTAWAN 4.0
DEERFIELD 3.2
DETROIT 3.0
CEMENT CITY 3.0
HASTINGS 3.0
BATTLE CREEK 3.0
JACKSON 3.0
SCHOOLCRAFT 3.0
...WISCONSIN...
TWO RIVERS 7.0
VALDERS 5.7
KENOSHA 5.0
PLEASANT PRAIRIE 3.3
ELKHART LAKE 3.0
ROME 3.0
PELL LAKE 1 SE 2.1
BRODHEAD 2.1
...WEST VIRGINIA...
KEYSER 4.6
PETERSBURG 2.0
BUNKER HILL 2.0
ROMNEY 1 SW 2.0
BAYARD 1.6
LOST RIVER 1.0
KEYSER 2 SSW 1.0
LEWISBURG 0.5
...VIRGINIA...
STEPHENS CITY 5.3
ASHBURN 5.0
WINCHESTER 5.0
FAIRFAX 4.8
BERRYVILLE 4.5
MIDDLETOWN 3.9
ARLINGTON 3.5
HAMILTON 3.5
HAYMARKET 3.3
RESTON 3.0
...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 3.0
...MARYLAND...
FROSTBURG 8.5
ECKHART MINES 7.8
MCHENRY 7.5
CONOWINGO 6.0
FREDERICK 5.5
WESTMINSTER 5.5
CUMBERLAND 5.0
MT. SAVAGE 5.0
ROCKVILLE 4.5
JACKSONVILLE 4.0
COLUMBIA 3.3
BALTIMORE 2.0
...PENNSYLVANIA...
FOREST CITY 17.8
WARREN 16.5
MONTROSE 15.0
PRESTON 13.5
BLAKESLEE 13.5
TOWANDA 12.5
SENECA 12.0
ALBRIGHTSVILLE 12.0
CLERMONT 11.0
POCONO SUMMIT 11.0
STATE COLLEGE 10.5
ALLENTOWN APT 7.2
HARRISBURG 5.0
PHILADELPHIA APT 4.3
...DELAWARE...
BEAR 2.8
WILMINGTON AIRPORT 2.8
...NEW JERSEY...
HIGH POINT STATE 7.8
WANTAGE 7.5
NEWTON 6.2
NATIONAL PARK 4.3
GLENWOOD 4.3
BUTLER 4.0
HACKETTSTOWN 4.0
MARCELLA 3.7
CREAM RIDGE 3.2
FLORENCE 3.0
MOUNT LAUREL 2.5
DELRAN 1.5
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 1.2
NEWARK 1.0
ATLANTIC CITY 0.8
...NEW YORK...
STRATFORD 42.0
ST. JOHNSVILLE 40.1
PISECO 39.5
HOWES CAVE 38.3
ROSEBOOM 38.0
MAYFIELD 34.5
DEERFIELD 31.0
BOVINA 30.0
COOPERSTOWN 30.0
MORIAH 30.0
FULTON 28.8
PORTER HOLLOW 28.0
WEST BAINBRIDGE 26.8
SARATOGA SPRINGS 21.9
ROCHESTER AIRPORT 21.0
ALBANY 20.5
WINDSOR 20.0
WESTPORT 20.0
ITHACA 19.5
SPRINGFIELD 19.0
BRIGHTON 18.0
BINGHAMTON 17.8
SYRACUSE 17.0
POUGHKEEPSIE 13.9
NIAGARA FALLS 13.0
BUFFALO 9.0
CENTRAL PARK 1.2
...CONNECTICUT...
WINSTED 5.0
VERNON 4.5
NEW PRESTON 4.5
NORTH GRANBY 4.5
NEW HARTFORD 4.3
BRIDGEWATER 4.0
TOLLAND 4.0
MANCHESTER 3.5
SOMERS 3.0
HARTFORD BRADLEY AIRPORT 2.4
...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 19.0
PITTSFIELD 18.0
WILLIAMSTOWN 17.0
PERU 15.0
CLARKSBURG 13.5
ASHFIELD 12.5
GREENFIELD 12.0
GOSHEN 11.0
LENOX DALE 11.0
ALFORD 10.5
...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 4.0
WOONSOCKET 3.0
CUMBERLAND 2.0
NORTH FOSTER 2.0
NORTH SMITHFIELD 2.0
PROVIDENCE T.F. GREEN 0.5
...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
GORHAM 28.0
DIXVILLE NOTCH 24.0
PINKHAM NOTCH 23.0
COLEBROOK 22.0
COLUMBIA 22.0
TWIN MOUNTAIN 22.0
LISBON 20.2
LOST RIVER 20.0
FRANCONIA NOTCH 19.5
LANCASTER 19.0
NELSON 17.0
JAFFREY 16.0
SWANZEY 16.0
CONCORD 10.0
...VERMONT...
CAMBRIDGE 36.0
JERICHO CENTER 31.2
MONKTON 31.0
EDEN 30.4
MONTPELIER 30.0
KILLINGTON 30.0
WATERBURY CENTER 30.0
BETHEL 29.5
STOWE 29.0
WOODFORD 28.0
WEST RUTLAND 27.0
NORTHFIELD 25.8
SOUTH BURLINGTON NWS OFFICE 25.7
...MAINE...
EUSTIS 29.8
WILTON 21.0
HARTFORD 20.0
MOUNT CHASE 16.5
AUBURN 15.5
NEW SHARON 15.5
SEBEC LAKE 15.4
HIRAM 15.0
WELLINGTON 15.0
GUILFORD 15.0
SOUTH WINDHAM 14.1
HEBRON 14.0
RAYMOND 13.0
GRAY 12.7
AUGUSTA 10.5
BRUNSWICK 8.0
CARIBOU 8.0
BANGOR 8.0
...SELECTED FREEZING RAIN ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 3 AM EST...
...INDIANA...
SUNMAN 0.50
RIPLEY COUNTY 0.30
BATESVILLE 0.25
OSGOOD 0.25
VIGO 0.25
...ILLINOIS...
MONTGOMERY 0.25
CHARLESTON 0.25
MATTOON 0.20
...KENTUCKY...
FLORENCE 0.50
FORT MITCHELL 0.10
CARROLLTON 0.10
OWENTON 0.10
...OHIO...
ASHVILLE 1.50
WILMINGTON 0.60
BEAVERCREEK 0.60
TRENTON 0.50
WILLAMSBURG 0.40
COLUMBUS 0.30
LEBANON 0.30
DAYTON 0.30
WESTCHESTER 0.25
COSHOCTON 0.25
SHARONVILLE 0.25
...PENNSYLVANIA...
MOON 0.13
WYNNEWOOD 0.10
...NEW JERSEY...
TINTON FALLS 0.50
WRIGHTSTOWN 0.25
WILDWOOD 0.25
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 0.25
BEAR 0.10
...VIRGINIA...
MABRY MILL 1.25
WILLIS 0.75
HARRISONBURG 0.75
PAINT BANK 0.50
FISHERSVILLE 0.50
NEW MARKET 0.50
CHRISTIANBURG 0.40
PLEASANT VIEW 0.33
FLOYD 0.33
STAUNTON 0.25
BEDFORD 0.25
BOWLING GREEN 0.25
CROZET 0.25
ASHBURN 0.20
CENTREVILLE 0.20
WARRENTON 0.20
...MARYLAND...
WALDORF 0.75
MONTGOMERY VILLAGE 0.50
CROFTON 0.40
ANNAPOLIS 0.40
WESTMINSTER 0.30
BALTIMORE 0.25
GLEN BURNIE 0.20
OXON HILL 0.20
ELDERSBURG 0.10
...WEST VIRGINIA...
CHARLESTOWN 0.75
MARTINSBURG 0.30
RAINELLE 0.25
BUNKER HILL 0.10
THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS STORM. PLEASE REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
TRIMARCO
Taunton, MA storm summary:
NOUS41 KBOX 151618
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-160405-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1105 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007
STORM DATE: FEB 14, 2007
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 48
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
...HARTFORD COUNTY...
NORTH GRANBY 4.5 932 PM 2/14 FINAL
MANCHESTER 3.5 737 PM 2/14 FINAL
AVON 3.0 400 PM 2/14 CT DOT
BURLINGTON 3.0 854 PM 2/14
EAST GRANBY 3.0 400 PM 2/14 CT DOT
GRANBY 3.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
BRISTOL 2.7 435 PM 2/14
ENFIELD 2.5 205 PM 2/14
WETHERSFIELD 2.5 800 PM 2/14 FINAL
WINDSOR LOCKS 2.4 700 PM 2/14 BDL AIRPORT
FARMINGTON 2.0 1245 PM 2/14
...TOLLAND COUNTY...
TOLLAND 5.2 622 AM 2/15 FINAL
VERNON 4.5 800 PM 2/14 FINAL
STAFFORDVILLE 3.5 1000 PM 2/14 COOP - FINAL
SOMERS 3.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
...WINDHAM COUNTY...
THOMPSON 3.5 355 PM 2/14
NORTH GROSVENORDALE 2.3 955 PM 2/14
EASTFORD 2.0 230 PM 2/14
PUTNAM 2.0 400 PM 2/14 CT DOT
MASSACHUSETTS
...BRISTOL COUNTY...
TAUNTON 2.1 1150 PM 2/14 NWS - FINAL
...ESSEX COUNTY...
HAVERHILL 9.5 1100 PM 2/14 FINAL
GEORGETOWN 8.0 453 PM 2/14
AMESBURY 7.3 250 PM 2/14
METHUEN 6.5 620 PM 2/14
ANDOVER 6.0 435 PM 2/14
IPSWICH 3.7 641 PM 2/14
LYNN 2.5 110 PM 2/14
MARBLEHEAD 2.5 723 PM 2/14
ROCKPORT 2.5 245 PM 2/14
SWAMPSCOTT 2.5 1036 AM 2/15 WE 2.33
PEABODY 2.0 400 PM 2/14
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
ASHFIELD 12.5 818 PM 2/14
GREENFIELD 12.0 630 PM 2/14
CHARLEMONT 10.0 915 PM 2/14 FINAL
TURNERS FALLS 8.0 212 PM 2/14
WHATELY 7.0 743 AM 2/15 FINAL
LEVERETT 6.5 350 PM 2/14
...HAMPDEN COUNTY...
CHESTER 9.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
HOLYOKE 5.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
WILBRAHAM 5.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
SOUTHWICK 4.8 415 PM 2/14
CHICOPEE 4.0 210 PM 2/14
LONGMEADOW 3.9 830 PM 2/14
WESTFIELD 3.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
WILBRAHAM 3.4 1032 AM 2/15 FINAL
EAST LONGMEADOW 3.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
WEST SPRINGFIELD 2.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 11.0 545 PM 2/14
HUNTINGTON 9.0 728 PM 2/14
GRANBY 5.0 1025 AM 2/15 FINAL
SOUTH HADLEY 4.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
WARE 3.5 515 PM 2/14
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PEPPERELL 8.5 1044 PM 2/14 FINAL
TOWNSEND 8.5 1040 AM 2/15 FINAL
LOWELL 8.0 345 PM 2/14
NORTH WOBURN 6.6 923 PM 2/14 FINAL
DRACUT 6.5 843 PM 2/14
NORTH BILLERICA 6.5 625 PM 2/14
AYER 6.1 912 PM 2/14 FINAL
BILLERICA 6.0 615 PM 2/14
CONCORD 6.0 154 PM 2/14
LITTLETON 6.0 400 PM 2/14
WESTFORD 6.0 300 PM 2/14
TEWKSBURY 5.8 645 PM 2/14
HUDSON 5.6 800 PM 2/14
LINCOLN 5.5 350 PM 2/14
CHELMSFORD 5.3 259 PM 2/14
STONEHAM 5.0 728 AM 2/15 FINAL
WAKEFIELD 5.0 1018 AM 2/15 FINAL
EAST NATICK 4.9 822 PM 2/14
NATICK 4.5 230 PM 2/14
READING 4.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL
FRAMINGHAM 4.0 205 PM 2/14
STONEHAM 3.8 730 PM 2/14
CAMBRIDGE T 215 AM 2/15
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
BLUE HILLS 1.6 100 PM 2/14
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
EAST BOSTON 2.5 1150 PM 2/14 LOGAN - FINAL
WINTHROP 2.0 1037 PM 2/14 FINAL
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
WORCESTER 9.8 1030 AM 2/14 ORH AIRPORT
ATHOL 8.0 647 PM 2/14
HUBBARDSTON 7.5 229 PM 2/14
PHILLIPSTON 7.2 630 PM 2/14
WEST BROOKFIELD 6.0 1033 AM 2/15 FINAL
FITCHBURG 5.8 213 PM 2/14
BOYLSTON 5.7 1151 PM 2/14 FINAL
GARDNER 5.5 212 PM 2/14
WESTBOROUGH 4.7 1145 PM 2/14 FINAL
NORTH GRAFTON 4.5 625 AM 2/15 FINAL
MILFORD 4.0 344 PM 2/14
SOUTHBRIDGE 4.0 742 PM 2/14
WEST WARREN 3.5 640 PM 2/14
LEOMINSTER 3.0 720 AM 2/14
SHREWSBURY 3.0 130 PM 2/14
NEW HAMPSHIRE
...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
NELSON 17.0 1100 PM 2/14 NH DOT - FINAL
JAFFREY 16.0 1100 PM 2/14 NH DOT - FINAL
SWANZEY 16.0 1100 PM 2/14 NH DOT - FINAL
KEENE 15.2 530 PM 2/15 FINAL
WALPOLE 14.5 435 PM 2/14
EAST ALSTEAD 12.8 1035 AM 2/15 WE 1.62
RINDGE 12.0 800 PM 2/14
TROY 8.5 138 PM 2/14
...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
FRANCESTOWN 20.0 1035 AM 2/15 FINAL
NEW IPSWICH 14.0 800 PM 2/14 NH DOT
PETERBOROUGH 12.5 906 PM 2/14 FINAL
GREENFIELD 12.0 1010 PM 2/14 FINAL
HILLSBORO 12.0 1100 PM 2/14 NH DOT - FINAL
HUDSON 10.0 1039 AM 2/15 FINAL
WILTON 9.5 1155 PM 2/14 FINAL
SOUTH WEARE 9.4 1037 AM 2/15 FINAL
BEDFORD 8.0 1100 PM 2/14 NH DOT - FINAL
MILFORD 8.0 405 PM 2/14
MERRIMACK 7.0 315 PM 2/14
HUDSON 6.3 937 PM 2/14 COOP
MASON 6.0 145 PM 2/14
NASHUA 6.0 1030 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
NASHUA 5.6 1030 AM 2/15 CWSU
BEDFORD 4.5 300 PM 2/14 NH DOT
RHODE ISLAND
...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
BURRILLVILLE 4.0 712 PM 2/14
WOONSOCKET 3.0 523 PM 2/14
CUMBERLAND 2.0 1146 AM 2/14
NORTH FOSTER 2.0 1110 PM 2/14 COOP - FINAL
NORTH SMITHFIELD 2.0 120 PM 2/14
**********************SUSTAINED WIND *********************
LOCATION SUSTAINED TIME/DATE COMMENTS
WIND OF
(MPH) MEASUREMENT
MASSACHUSETTS
...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
HYANNIS 32 138 PM 2/14 HYA ASOS
...DUKES COUNTY...
VINEYARD HAVEN 38 154 PM 2/14 MVY ASOS
...ESSEX COUNTY...
BEVERLY 32 455 PM 2/14 BVY ASOS
LAWRENCE 32 136 PM 2/14 LWM ASOS
...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
NANTUCKET 41 1252 PM 2/14 ACK ASOS
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
MILTON 36 528 PM 2/14 BLUE HILL ASOS
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BOSTON 38 132 PM 2/14 LOGAN ASOS
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
WORCESTER 35 839 PM 2/14 ORH ASOS
*************************PEAK WIND *************************
LOCATION PEAK WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
OF
(MPH) MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
...HARTFORD COUNTY...
BRISTOL 49 744 PM 2/14
MASSACHUSETTS
...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
MARSTONS MILLS 53 219 PM 2/14 AMATEUR RADIO
EAST FALMOUTH 51 150 PM 2/14
...DUKES COUNTY...
VINEYARD HAVEN 49 153 PM 2/14 MVY ASOS
...ESSEX COUNTY...
SALEM 49 1242 PM 2/14 AMATEUR RADIO
ROCKPORT 48 310 PM 2/14
PEABODY 47 328 PM 2/14
...HAMPDEN COUNTY...
MONTGOMERY 47 557 AM 2/15
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CAMBRIDGE 46 215 AM 2/15
...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
NANTUCKET 53 1235 PM 2/14 AMATEUR RADIO
NANTUCKET 51 1253 PM 2/14 ASOS
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
BROOKLINE 48 328 PM 2/14
MILTON 47 1110 AM 2/14 BLUE HILL ASOS
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BOSTON 45 115 PM 2/14 LOGAN ASOS
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
WORCESTER 48 956 PM 2/14 ORH ASOS
$$
BOX WFO STAFF
SNE storm total maps:
Albany, NY Storm Summary:
NOUS41 KALY 151607
PNSALY
CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-151700-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1107 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
...LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
WINSTED 5.0 822 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
NEW PRESTON 4.5 745 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
NEW HARTFORD 4.3 819 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
BRIDGEWATER 4.0 824 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
MASSACHUSETTS
...BERKSHIRE COUNTY...
SAVOY 19.0 1054 PM 2/14 MEDIA
PITTSFIELD 18.0 908 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
SAVOY 18.0 710 PM 2/14 MEDIA
WILLIAMSTOWN 17.0 616 PM 2/14 MEDIA
PERU 15.0 615 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CLARKSBURG 14.0 630 AM 2/15 MEDIA
LANESBOROUGH 13.0 700 AM 2/15 MEDIA
LENOX DALE 11.0 700 PM 2/14 COOP
ALFORD 10.5 1039 PM 2/14 MEDIA
NEW YORK
...ALBANY COUNTY...
POTTER HOLLOW 28.0 1057 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SOUTH BERNE 28.0 530 AM 2/15 MEDIA
RENSSELAERVILLE 24.5 632 PM 2/14 MEDIA
KNOX 23.0 1050 AM 2/15 MEDIA
EAST BERNE 22.0 1042 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ALBANY 21.0 700 AM 2/15 PINE BUSH
ALBANY 21.0 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
COLONIE 20.5 1038 PM 2/14 MEDIA
COLONIE 19.0 953 PM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
WESTERLO 19.0 1046 PM 2/14 MEDIA
GREEN ISLAND 18.5 1032 PM 2/14 MEDIA
GUILDERLAND 18.0 617 PM 2/14 MEDIA
DELMAR 17.0 711 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ALBANY 16.8 700 AM 2/15 NWS OFFICE
MENANDS 16.0 700 AM 2/15 MEDIA
LATHAM 16.0 752 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
...COLUMBIA COUNTY...
NORTH CHATHAM 20.5 937 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
STUYVESANT FALLS 19.8 700 AM 2/15 MEDIA
WEST GHENT 19.5 1017 PM 2/14 MEDIA
GHENT 19.0 511 AM 2/15 MEDIA
CHATHAM CENTER 16.0 501 AM 2/15 MEDIA
KINDERHOOK 16.0 1027 PM 2/14 MEDIA
WEST LEBANON 16.0 614 PM 2/14 MEDIA
NORTH HILLSDALE 14.5 936 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
CRARYVILLE 13.5 558 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
HUDSON 12.0 1026 PM 2/14 MEDIA
LIVINGSTON 10.3 1046 PM 2/14 MEDIA
TAGHKANIC 10.2 800 AM 2/15 MEDIA
ANCRAMDALE 9.8 508 AM 2/15 MEDIA
...DUTCHESS COUNTY...
POUGHKEEPSIE 13.9 942 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
CLINTON CORNERS 13.8 1102 PM 2/14 MEDIA
VERBANK 10.0 815 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
UNION VALE 9.0 1020 AM 2/15 MEDIA
BARRYTOWN 8.0 552 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
PLEASANT VALLEY 8.0 621 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SALT POINT 7.0 936 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
POUGHQUAG 6.5 1040 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
...FULTON COUNTY...
STRATFORD 42.0 915 PM 2/14 MEDIA
MAYFIELD 34.5 712 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BROADALBIN 34.0 1020 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CAROGA LAKE 33.3 422 AM 2/15 MEDIA
GLOVERSVILLE 33.0 500 AM 2/15 MEDIA
NORTHVILLE 32.0 510 AM 2/15 MEDIA
...GREENE COUNTY...
PRATTSVILLE 28.0 1056 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ELKA PARK 27.0 710 AM 2/15 MEDIA
EAST JEWETT 26.0 619 PM 2/14 MEDIA
WINDHAM 26.0 619 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ASHLAND 25.0 1028 PM 2/14 MEDIA
MAPLECREST 20.0 745 AM 2/15 MEDIA
HALCOTT 18.0 859 PM 2/14 MEDIA
COXSACKIE 17.0 618 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CATSKILL 13.8 120 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
...HAMILTON COUNTY...
PISECO 39.5 912 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE 39.0 1045 PM 2/14 MEDIA
HOFFMEISTER 38.0 755 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
INDIAN LAKE 37.5 650 AM 2/15 MEDIA
PISECO 36.0 641 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SPECULATOR 34.0 839 PM 2/14 MEDIA
RAQUETTE LAKE 13.5 830 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
...HERKIMER COUNTY...
FAIRFIELD 42.0 700 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
DOLGEVILLE 39.0 1040 AM 2/15 MEDIA
SALISBURY 36.9 640 PM 2/14 MEDIA
DOLGEVILLE 35.0 600 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
FRANKFORT 32.0 642 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ILION 32.0 1130 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
LITTLE FALLS 30.0 643 PM 2/14 MEDIA
RICHFIELD SPRINGS 26.5 800 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
CEDARVILLE 19.4 1020 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
POLAND 18.3 610 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
OLD FORGE 10.0 921 PM 2/14 PUBLIC
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
SAINT JOHNSVILLE 40.1 916 PM 2/14 MEDIA
AMSTERDAM 34.5 940 PM 2/14 MEDIA
FORT PLAIN 34.0 633 PM 2/14 MEDIA
HESSVILLE 34.0 544 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SPROUT BROOK 33.0 713 PM 2/14 MEDIA
FONDA 32.0 610 AM 2/15 MEDIA
TRIBES HILL 30.0 634 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ROOT 28.0 631 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CANAJOHARIE 27.0 620 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...RENSSELAER COUNTY...
SCHODACK 24.3 1007 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BRUNSWICK 20.1 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST SCHODACK 19.7 827 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
SPEIGLETOWN 18.0 600 AM 2/15 MEDIA
AVERILL PARK 18.0 900 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
TROY 17.5 1052 PM 2/14 MEDIA
POESTENKILL 15.5 615 PM 2/14 MEDIA
STEPHENTOWN 13.0 614 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...SARATOGA COUNTY...
PORTER CORNERS 30.5 544 PM 2/14 MEDIA
GREENFIELD CENTER 30.0 645 AM 2/15 MEDIA
GANSEVOORT 27.0 620 AM 2/15 MEDIA
SOUTH GLENS FALLS 24.0 619 PM 2/14 MEDIA
WATERFORD 23.5 935 AM 2/15 MEDIA
SARATOGA SPRINGS 22.0 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
JONESVILLE 22.0 810 PM 2/14 RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE
WILTON 22.0 1045 PM 2/14 MEDIA
MIDDLE GROVE 21.8 545 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BALLSTON LAKE 21.0 635 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BURNT HILLS 20.5 545 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CLIFTON PARK 20.1 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
ROUND LAKE 20.0 708 PM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
VISCHER FERRY 19.0 1023 PM 2/14 MEDIA
MALTA 18.0 705 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
MECHANICVILLE 18.0 1059 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...SCHENECTADY COUNTY...
PRINCETOWN 27.0 546 PM 2/14 MEDIA
DUANESBURG 26.0 546 PM 2/14 MEDIA
DELANSON 25.0 700 AM 2/15 MEDIA
MARIAVILLE 24.0 620 PM 2/14 MEDIA
ROTTERDAM 21.0 617 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SCHENECTADY 20.5 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
NISKAYUNA 18.0 700 AM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...
HOWES CAVE 38.3 1047 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SUMMIT 36.0 1051 PM 2/14 MEDIA
HOWES CAVE 34.5 546 PM 2/14 MEDIA
FULTON 34.0 620 AM 2/15 MEDIA
GILBOA 33.5 1103 PM 2/14 MEDIA
COBLESKILL 32.2 820 AM 2/15 MEDIA
SEWARD 32.0 600 AM 2/15 MEDIA
JEFFERSON 32.0 438 AM 2/15 MEDIA
RICHMONDVILLE 31.0 1045 PM 2/14 MEDIA
MIDDLEBURGH 24.0 1009 PM 2/14 MEDIA
GALLUPVILLE 23.0 621 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...ULSTER COUNTY...
PHOENICIA 16.0 610 AM 2/15 MEDIA
WOODSTOCK 12.0 1101 PM 2/14 MEDIA
KINGSTON 11.7 1100 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
WEST SHOKAN 11.0 518 AM 2/15 MEDIA
WHITEPORT 10.3 805 AM 2/15 MEDIA
...WARREN COUNTY...
LAKE LUZERNE 32.0 714 PM 2/14 MEDIA
BOLTON LANDING 32.0 730 AM 2/15 MEDIA
POTTERSVILLE 32.0 547 PM 2/14 MEDIA
CHESTERTOWN 28.0 633 PM 2/14 MEDIA
QUEENSBURY 27.0 545 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
WARRENSBURG 26.0 904 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
QUEENSBURY 24.0 621 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
GRANVILLE 30.0 715 PM 2/14 MEDIA
HUDSON FALLS 27.0 550 AM 2/15 MEDIA
COSSAYUNA 26.0 815 AM 2/15 MEDIA
GRANVILLE 26.0 548 PM 2/14 MEDIA
KINGSBURY 25.0 1029 PM 2/14 MEDIA
WHITEHALL 24.0 515 AM 2/15 MEDIA
ARGYLE 22.0 929 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
MIDDLE GRANVILLE 19.0 620 PM 2/14 MEDIA
SALEM 15.0 853 PM 2/14 MEDIA
VERMONT
...BENNINGTON COUNTY...
WOODFORD 28.0 1100 PM 2/14 MEDIA
LANDGROVE 28.0 630 AM 2/15 MEDIA
READSBORO 24.0 617 PM 2/14 MEDIA
...WINDHAM COUNTY...
BRATTLEBORO 16.5 930 PM 2/14
PUTNEY 16.3 1208 AM 2/15 SPOTTER
WILMINGTON 16.0 546 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
ATHENS 14.6 952 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
DUMMERSTON 13.5 950 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
EAST PUTNEY 13.3 911 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
WILLIAMSVILLE 13.0 952 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
GUILFORD 7.5 1050 PM 2/14 SPOTTER
$$
Albany, NY Storm Page for "Valentine's Day Snowstorm": http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Past/2007/Feb_14_2007/Feb_14_2007.htm
Resulting snowdepths:
Upton, NY Storm Summary:
000
NOUS41 KOKX 151617
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-152100-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1117 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. MANY OF
REPORTS ARE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC.
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
FAIRFIELD 3.0 630 PM 2/14
GREENWICH 3.0 910 PM 2/14
WESTON 2.6 1000 PM 2/14
DARIEN 2.0 230 PM 2/14
NEW CANAAN 2.0 200 PM 2/14
BRIDGEPORT 2.0 700 PM 2/14
DANBURY 1.8 200 PM 2/14
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 3.1 800 PM 2/14
HADDAM 0.3 200 PM 2/14
OLD SAYBROOK 0.3 200 PM 2/14
...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
WOLCOTT 5.8 900 PM 2/14
NAUGATUCK 3.5 900 PM 2/14
SOUTHBURY 2.5 300 PM 2/14
WOODBRIDGE 2.5 234 PM 2/14
BETHANY 2.0 215 PM 2/14
MILFORD 2.0 200 PM 2/14
NEW HAVEN 1.8 202 PM 2/14
WATERBURY 1.5 200 PM 2/14
BEACON FALLS 1.0 200 PM 2/14
MERIDEN 0.8 200 PM 2/14
...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
COLCHESTER 4.5 800 PM 2/14
GROTON 0.3 200 PM 2/14
NORWICH 0.3 200 PM 2/14
NEW JERSEY
...BERGEN COUNTY...
MAHWAH 4.0 100 PM 2/14
RAMSEY 2.0 230 PM 2/14
PALISADES PARK 2.0 100 PM 2/14
RIVERVALE 2.0 300 PM 2/14
WYCKOFF 2.0 155 PM 2/14
FORT LEE 2.0 230 PM 2/14
GARFIELD 1.5 200 PM 2/14
...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK LIBERTY AP 3.1 700 PM 2/14
WEST ORANGE 2.0 100 PM 2/14
...HUDSON COUNTY...
KEARNY 3.0 520 PM 2/14
JERSEY CITY 2.1 200 PM 2/14
HARRISON 2.0 700 PM 2/14
...UNION...
RAHWAY 2.6 1000 PM 2/14
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WAYNE 4.0 100 PM 2/14
RINGWOOD 3.5 300 PM 2/14
WEST PATTERSON 3.0 300 PM 2/14
NEW YORK
...ORANGE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 8.3 600 PM 2/14
NEW WINDSOR 7.6 830 PM 2/14
MOUNT HOPE 7.0 300 PM 2/14
CORNWALL ON HUDSON 6.6 700 PM 2/14
WESTTOWN 6.5 600 PM 2/14
...PUTNAM COUNTY...
MAHOPAC 4.0 600 PM 2/14
CARMEL 2.5 225 PM 2/14
...ROCKLAND...
STONY POINT 4.0 500 PM 2/14
NYACK 3.5 815 PM 2/14
...NASSAU...
HICKSVILLE 1.5 800 AM 2/15
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ISLIP AP 0.5 700 PM 2/14
UPTON 0.4 135 PM 2/14
...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
YONKERS 3.1 500 PM 2/14
ARDSLEY 3.1 500 PM 2/14
...NEW YORK...
UPPER WEST SIDE... 2.9 800 PM 2/14
CENTRAL PARK ZOO 2.0 700 PM 2/14
...KINGS...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 2.3 500 PM 2/14
...QUEENS...
LAGUARDIA AP 2.6 700 PM 2/14
JF KENNEDY AP 1.4 700 PM 2/14
$$
...My own discussion on the event will be issued tomorrow.
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