LONG TERM (2215):
Not looking good at all. This time two days ago, there was some hope of cold air finally entering the region, however the GFS has wisked that hope away. We still are looking at the possibility of two significant storms to affect the Northeast within the next two weeks.
First I want to begin by summarizing what we are looking at for the short and medium term:
A storm system in Canada currently has a cold front draped southwest across Buffalo to another low located in Indiana. This low will move eastward into the area tomorrow night. Due to the dryness of the front and the fact that the low will be moving to our south, expect little in the way of precipitation through Monday evening. Monday night and Tuesday may see some flurries or snow showers, but no accumulation. Colder air will enter the region Tuesday with highs in the 30s and lows around 20; the same for Wednesday. The cold will not remain long as blocking sets up too far east to keep the trough over New England.
Low pressure in the south will move northward into the Ohio Valley on Friday, forced over a newly built ridge of high pressure over the east. Rain will fall across the Northeast Friday Night into Saturday with a chance of some icing Friday Night and Saturday Morning in Keene.
Somewhat colder air will move in Sunday and Christmas Day (maybe near average?) However it appears it will likely NOT be a white Christmas afterall for most of the New England region.
Now onto the long term.
NAO and PNA both cooperate some what here but the AO will remain positive through the period, which will keep all cold air locked up in Canada.
GFS Ensembles are currently in a suprising agreement over the coastal storm system next week, however all the ensemble members are also indicating that the air mass will be too warm to support snow. Still, this could be an interesting situation if colder air gets involved.
Update (1535):
Cold front now entering New York. The front is a little drier than previously expected, and the NWS has removed all chances of precipitation from the forecast. I will continue with a chance of a shower or snow shower through Tuesday morning, otherwise, skies should clear up a bit tonight, then cloud over again Monday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary. A chance of flurries will continue into Tuesday morning, with clearing skies later in the morning.
Temperatures this afternoon have been kept down slightly due to a thicker cloud base associated with the warm front that crossed the region earlier today. Still are looking at highs reaching the upper 40s (in Keene) to low 50s across SNE.
Storm still looking rainy for Friday into Saturday. Colder air moves in next week in time for Christmas and in time for another storm threat (GFS consistency is good so far) for the 27th.
Details on the long term later this evening.
| Location | NWS forecast | Daily record | Normal High |
| Keene | 51F | 60F | 34F |
| Worcester | 52F | 60F | 36F |
| Concord | 51F | 59F | 35F |
| Boston | 56F | 64F | 41F |
So overall, we are going to be looking at highs this afternoon between 15 and 20 degrees above average.
Below is a chart of high and low temperatures for the first half of December. Notice only 4 days were below average, while the other 11 days were above average, and in one case tied with the daily record. We have seen above average temperatures now since the 9th.
The current period of warmth will end Monday Night as a storm system drags a cold front through the region. I'll post the long term discussion later this afternoon.
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