Warmth and rain Wednesday

After receiving our first snowfall to last more than an hour this past Friday, warmer air has returned to the region. Temperatures today rose into the 40s to low 50s across southern New England under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight, a weak backdoor cold front will pull through the region however without any precipitation. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather will return. Temperatures will dip into the upper teens by tomorrow morning, rebounding to around 40 under mostly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow night, clouds will move in after midnight ahead of a storm system in the Ohio Valley. Precipitation will move in sometime Wednesday morning. The timing of the onset of precipitation is critical in regard to the type. If the dry air retreats quickly, precip will begin before daybreak. With temperatures in the mid 20s Wednesday morning, the type of precip would be snow prior to 8am. By day-break, warmer air will move into the midlevels, changing falling precip to rain. Colder surface temperatures will mean freezing rain or sleet to hamper the morning commute Wednesday. By 8am, all precip will change to plain rain as warmer air reaches the surface. Again, drier air may not allow precip to enter the area until later in the morning, so an icy commute is not a given yet.

Rain will continue through Wednesday afternoon, tapering off during the evening hours. This will not be a washout by any means. Rain will amount to .25in to .5in by the time it ends.

Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will return to the northeast on Thursday. Highs will start out in the low 40s Thursday and gradually drop to the mid 30s by next Monday. Lows will range in the 20s all days. Strong high pressure will keep the weather dry through this period.

Beyond the 7-day forecast, we will likely endure one more out-of-season rain event next week. Signals from long range forecast models indicate we may finally move into a more winter-like pattern around Christmas time, possibly starting with a significant coastal event during that period.