Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Wintry precipitation for Friday Night




UPDATE (1950): Highs today reached 41 in Keene, marking the 10th straight day of above average high temperatures. The forecast looks bleak for any change in that respect. Average high temperature for tomorrow is 31 in Keene.

Clear skies will stay in the region into early Friday before increasing cloudiness move in ahead of the next storm. Forecast still looks icy for Friday Night into Saturday morning. Advisory potential exists, but precipitation may be too light through Saturday morning for much in the way of icing. Morning commuters Saturday should stay tuned for the latest on the potential for icy travel conditions.

Saturday will be a wet day across the northeast and we may even have to start talking about poor-drainage street flooding. Precipitation will wind down Saturday Night, possibly as another very brief period of freezing rain.

Sunday will see clearing skies and temperatures into the 40s. Christmas Day looks dry right now as the timing of the second storm has been shifted back a bit. Temperatures on Christmas will rise to the low 40s (10F above average).

The storm (now set for Tuesday) is very up in the air right now. GFS has shifted the storm east and now delivers just a glancing blow to New England. Ensembles still have the storm hugging the coast. GFS will probably trend back west starting within the next 48 hours, but how far is uncertain and will dictate what in the way of precipitation we will receive. Confidence in the Christmas and post Christmas forecast is very low right now.





Mostly sunny skies will help boost temperatures into the upper 30s to low 40s this afternoon. Temperatures are going to be a bit warmer than previously forecasted because the current extent of the trough over the east coast is half of what was thought. Therefore, today should extend the streak of above average high temperatures to 11 days. Thursday will mark one more day with highs 10+ degrees above average (high around 45), and should continue the streak to 11 days.

Friday and Saturday, storm moves in from the west. NWS forecast looks more icy than previous ones, Im holding with my original forecast. Looks like this may have advisory potential.

More on this storm coming up tonight.

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