SPC Day 1 Outlook: Slight Risk

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...NY/VT/NH/MA...
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...VT
   AND NH TODAY AND THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
   FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.
   
   CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
   REGION SHOW ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ENOUGH
   FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS FOR SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
   WIND DAMAGE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.