Hurricane Felix Forecast: Category 5

Hurricane Felix has rapidly deepened over the last 18 hours. Last night, Felix was steadily organizing and was approaching hurricane status with a forecast for possibly a major hurricane before landfall. Felix has since then achieved category 4 intensity of 120kts: 24 hours ahead of my forecast from this morning and a full 48 hours ahead of the NHC forecast. As we approach the diurnal minimum, Felix has the potential to continue its rapid strengthening. Shear remains very low, and tropical cyclone heat potential only increases from here on out. The possibiity exists for a category 5 hurricane within 24 to 48 hours. The intensity forecast will become a bit more tricky tomorrow evening, when an eye wall replacement cycle will likely begin based on the current size of the eye. A category 4 or 5 strike is likely on either or both Honduras and/or Belize/Yucatan Peninsula. After a passage over the Yucatan, Felix will move out over the Bay of Campeche which will allow some restrengthening to occur to at least category 2 and maybe major hurricane intensity.
Felix is traveling just north of west at a quick 17kts. The track is fairly straight forward through 72 hours. The models are clustered around a strike on Belize, and the only major question through 72 hours is how close it will come to Honduras. At this point, it looks like it will clear it by 50 to 100 miles. After 72 hours, models indicate the ridge breaking down with low pressure building in Texas. This will allow a turn toward the northwest as it moves out over the Bay of Campeche. Interests in Honduras, Belize, and Quintana Roo of Mexico should monitor this storm very closely.

......... Time ...... Lat .... Lon ..... Wind
0hr ..... 12z 9/2 ... 13.0 ... -69.3 ... 85kts
12hr .... 00z 9/3 ... 13.7 ... -72.8 ... 100kts
24hr .... 12z 9/3 ... 14.5 ... -76.2 ... 115kts
36hr .... 00z 9/4 ... 15.3 ... -79.4 ... 130kts
48hr .... 12z 9/4 ... 16.0 ... -82.6 ... 140kts
60hr .... 00z 9/5 ... 16.6 ... -85.2 ... 140kts
72hr .... 12z 9/5 ... 17.3 ... -87.5 ... 140kts
84hr .... 00z 9/6 ... 18.0 ... -89.8 ... 80kts ... inland
96hr .... 12z 9/6 ... 19.0 ... -91.5 ... 65kts ... inland
108hr ... 00z 9/7 ... 20.0 ... -93.0 ... 75kts
120hr ... 12z 9/7 ... 21.0 ... -94.5 ... 85kts