Hurricane Felix Forecast: watch out Honduras

The cloud tops of Felix have warmed considerably overnight. Recon sampled 155kt flight level winds and a pressure of 937mb. The intensity is kept at 145kts. The eye is becoming smaller and less symmetric over the past few hours. It is likely that an eyewall replacement cycle will commense later today. At this time, Felix is a very small storm, but an EWRC will expand its windfield greatly. The main question is whether it will have enough time to reorganize before making landfall. Heat content out ahead of the storm still holds potential for restrengthening after the EWRC, and shear is low, but since it is such a small storm, reorganization time will be longer. At this point, Felix is only 36 hours away from landfall.

Felix took a jog toward the south last night and has continued on a track very close to due west. The track has been shifted south for this reason, and now Honduras is under the gun. A strike on Honduras is becoming more likely and at an intensity of category 4 or 5. Plus, an EWRC will significantly enlarge the wind field and rain shield. Flooding could be catastrophic. While this is not looking like a repeat of Mitch or Fifi, it could come close in devastation. Persons in Honduras, if not yet prepared, need to act now. As I have said, this storm is only 36 hours away now. On the current forecast track, Felix will emerge briefly over water before a second strike on Belize. This will allow for some strength to be retained, and a high end category 3 / low end category 4 strike is likely. After 48 hours, a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected as TS Henriette in the EPAC creates a weakness in the ridge. Restrengthening in the BOC will depend on the amount of time over water. At this time, it appears Felix will be able to achieve category 1 intensity before making lanfall a third time in Mexico.

......... Time ...... Lat .... Lon ..... Wind
0hr ..... 12z 9/3 ... 14.1 ... -75.9 ... 145kts
12hr .... 00z 9/4 ... 14.5 ... -79.1 ... 145kts
24hr .... 12z 9/4 ... 15.0 ... -82.2 ... 140kts
36hr .... 00z 9/5 ... 15.6 ... -85.1 ... 115kts ... inland
48hr .... 12z 9/5 ... 16.3 ... -87.8 ... 115kts
60hr .... 00z 9/6 ... 17.1 ... -90.2 ... 65kts .... inland
72hr .... 12z 9/6 ... 18.0 ... -92.0 ... 55kts .... inland
84hr .... 00z 9/7 ... 19.0 ... -93.8 ... 60kts
96hr .... 12z 9/7 ... 20.0 ... -95.5 ... 65kts
108hr ... 00z 9/8 ... 21.0 ... -97.0 ... 75kts
120hr ... 12z 9/8 ... 22.0 ... -98.5 ... 40kts .... inland