Quick long term discussion

NAO continues to slowly rise. It currently sits at neutral. GFS ensembles bring it to 0 to 1.5 SD in two weeks. This will keep a moderate ridge in the east, allowing a southerly connection to continue and less of a chance of any polar lows dropping south. AO and PNA are forecasted to drop off over the next two weeks. This will break down the ridge in the west. Count on cold reaching in the Pacific northwest and upper plains. Stormy weather will be on the increase in the west. Eventually the trough will shift east later in the month. Cold should reach New England by the start of October. Count on our first freeze and maybe a few snowflakes further north during this period. La Nina continues to strengthen and will hold moderate intensity through the start of the winter. This will help keep cold in the east, but dry weather will also be a theme.