Snow in the NWS forecast

The NWS point forecast for Keene issued at 4:42pm now includes a chance for snow and rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The model guidence read has become more complicated in the last 24 hours, with the Euro still holding strong to arctic cold, but the GFS now dropping the solution. This is strange because the GFS usually has a cold bias over the Euro, and usually when there is a descrepency, the Euro is taken over the GFS. At this point, the models will not be at there best performance due to the impending pattern change.

Short term (through 5 days) snowfall outlook:
GFS has dropped the clipper potential Sunday Night - Monday but could be struggling with the change, and considering it held the same solution for 5 straight runs, we will likely see it back on the model at some point whether is actually occurs or not. Euro is still about 24 hours ahead. The NWS is keeping a dry forecast for the period, however here is a clip from the evening AFD:

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUNDAY BEGINS NICE WITH THE HIGH BACK IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. WITH THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...IF ANY PRECIP DOES
FALL...THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY.

Long term (through 10 days):
Watching potential snows on Wednesday the 7th.
NWS AFD:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. APPEARS THAT IT WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION SOMETIME TUESDAY. CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH COULD ALSO AGAIN SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...
EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT
OF THE FRONT...SO CARRIED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.

...
After that, just watching the arctic outbreak potential advertised by the Euro. Will have to keep an eye on this considering the model disagreement, but the Euro's consistency is encouraging.

Analogs for early November arctic connection:

Nov 18-20, 1959; Nov 6-8, 1967; Nov 8-9, 1971; Nov 8-9, 1976; Nov 13, 1976; Nov 14, 1986; Nov 7-9, 1992; Nov 9, 1995; Nov 11-15, 1996

All of the analogs had highs in the 30's and 40's and lows in the teens and 20's.

KeeneWeather.com forecast through November 15:
Min High: 36 ... Min Low: 16 ... Total Snowfall: 0.8"