BOX AFD regarding 12/3

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS WITH VERY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ALL THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF AN INLAND TRACK WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM BEFORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT REALLY GETS GOING. THIS MEANS
THAT SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...THE SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO ICE AND THEN MAYBE EVENTUALLY TO
RAIN...BUT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT COULD TRAP THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
EVENTUALLY NEED TO UPGRADE.

AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 5 DAYS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE
OF AN INLAND TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT MOST OF THE SNOW AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE A
CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MODELS DO ALL HINT AT
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY HOLD THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND LEAD TO A DECENT PERIOD OF ICING. HOWEVER...THIS
FAR OUT THINGS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
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My thoughts: The models have trended towards the Euros solution, however there is still some flipping around that is occuring. This is what I thought would happen and there is still a lot of time for changes. At this point, taking all the models verbatim actually gives the interior northeast a significant snow event. However, the proximity of the rain/snow line has many uneasy. A shift more to the north/west would mean precipitation type issues here and possibly nothing more than a wet inch of slop. On the other hand, a shift to the south/east could bring higher totals to New England. There is still at least one, maybe two, or even three major model shifts to go before the event. The fact remains that a significant storm system is being forecasted consistently by the models. You may see some forecast snowfall maps being posted online, however I believe it is still very early for anything of the sort. If the storm stays alive on the models, I'll begin posting forecast maps up Thursday evening.