Coating of snow tomorrow AM

The clipper approaching from the lakes region is progged to go slightly further north, meaning slightly warmer temperatures and lower QPF. BL temp profile will be cold enough to support snow tomorrow morning but will change to rain quickly by 10am. All in all, could see a coating of snow to .5" in higher elevations.

Northern NY and New England could see a 2 to 4 inch snowfall from this storm. Post your observations by clicking here.

-BOX-

COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
EXITS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FEATURE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
STRONG ASCENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY SHOWERY
PRECIP WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COLUMN MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THAT TIME TO ALLOW FOR A A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WE/RE MAINLY LOOKING AT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ENDING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

-GYX-

SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING IN ANOTHER DOSE OF MILD
AIR. MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LITTLE
OR NONE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW
CROSSES CANADA TO OUR NORTH.

-ALY-

ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS MEAGER WITH NO MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE GULF OR ATLANTIC NOTED.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF HAVE FORECAST A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE
THROUGH...THEN MAINLY CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ANY PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON
IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

-BTV-

WATER VAPOR ALREADY SHOWS NEXT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WL CONT TO ADVANCE EAST
TWD OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO THURS...WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP.
OVERALL SYSTEM WL BE FAST MOVING AND HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AS GULF
AND ATLANTIC WL BE CUT OFF. THE MAIN CONCERN WL BE PTYPE...GIVEN
THERMAL PROFILE. TONIGHT...WEAK WAA DEVELOPS AND 850-500MB
MOISTURE WL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED ON LATEST IR SATL PICS ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...THEN SLOWLY RISE AFT MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM THE GREEN MTNS WESTWARD. COOLEST
READINGS WL BE NEK. THURSDAY...WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL TRACK
FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WHICH WL PUSH A WARM
FRNT ACRS OUR CWA. THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH A STRONG LLVL SW JET
OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WL LIMIT PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...BUT WL STILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS DUE TO STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT...AND GOOD
RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/OMEGA MOVING ACRS OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...WINDOW OF PRECIP WL BE ONLY 2 TO 4 HRS...WITH OVERALL
QPF AROUND 0.10 FOR THE CPV AND BTWN 0.10 AND 0.30 FOR THE MTNS.
NEXT QUESTION WL BE PTYPE AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILE. BUFKIT
SOUNDING AT BTV SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW...DUE TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH VERY DRY SFC DWPTS...THEN COLUMN
MOISTENS UP ENOUGH AND BL TEMPS WARM BTWN 3 AND 4C TO SUPPORT A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE CPV. HOWEVER...MTN LOCATIONS ABOVE
1500 FT WL STAY ALL SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW (1 TO 2")
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

-CAR-

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND DAWN
THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. MODEL THICKNESSES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN DOWNEAST AREAS
THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING AS FAR NORTH AS
EAST CENTRAL MAINE BY LATE TOMORROW AS WARMER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SLIDES NORTH. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SNOW POWDERY. A GENERAL 3 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWNEAST WHERE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR. THE
SNOW...AND MIX IN SOUTHERN DOWNEAST AREAS...SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
IN THE DAY. WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 4 FOR THURSDAY.