-NAO and significant -AO still shown by ensembles, however they have not been verifying well at all for the past two months - usually way too robust with both indices going negative. Noel will help a -NAO to stay for a day or two, but a lack of strong blocking will allow the Pacific Jet to rise up again, bringing warmth to New England. This will be the story for at least the next two weeks: alternating 2 to 3 day periods of cold and warm temperatures. In between this, the weather pattern will still remain active, and there will be plenty of opprotunities for snow, with the only inhibiting factor being the Pacific Jet.
Dates:
11/5 - tomorrow morning - slight chance of freezing rain or snow. no accumulation.
11/6-7 - Tuesday night into Wednesday - another slight chanc of snow or a rain/snow mix. no accumulation.
11/9-10 - Friday into the weekend - weekend rule in play - clipper drops south but currently forecast to move too fast, too far east for any coastal organization. In fact, better chances of snow for New Jersey from this than in New England right now. However, I like to think that there is a GFS southern bias in play, so definitely something to watch. If a slower solution, could be first accumulating snows.
11/15-17 - Has been on my radar screen for a while now. A potential pattern turning storm on the verge of a -NAO that holds up a little longer. Again, depending on track, could see accumulating snowfall.
11/23-25 - Another one that I've watched for a while. No model support, but possible +NAO storm.
Then finally a storm to start December that sets the NAO negative for the rest of the month and into January.
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