Some longer term thoughts

Still watching the possibility of a light snow event on Friday, and now possibly an ice event Sunday through Monday. Behind the latter system, high pressure to our north takes control, limiting impact of the southeast ridge. NAO and AO are both predicted to peak during the storm, and begin to fall back as low pressure forces higher heights over Greenland. Another clipper moves through with a light snow event possible around the 13th. Then, generally slightly below normal temperatures behind it.

The GFS model has been consistent with developing a short wave in the southwest around the 15th and moving low pressure east into Texas. What happens after that has been all over the place, but the 06z 12/5 run today showed the dream solution: A monster low moving up the coast.


Obviously this only something for your viewing pleasure, but the consistency in the south may be something to watch. GFS has been indicating blocking developing near 20E next week, and retrograding westward to 20W by the 18th. Ensembles agree on the NAO and AO dropping to neutral by the 16th, with PNA rising to neutral.

In addition, this is in line with my winter season prediction of a significant snow event just before Christmas. I think we may have something to watch.