Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Wed-Thu event looks more signficant

While the rest of the guidence stays less robust with the storm system Wednesday into Thursday. Some major changes on the GFS caught our attention this morning. The GFS closes off the upper low and takes it further south than the rest of the guidence. This results in QPF totalling near 1+ for portions of SNH, and SW ME, and NE MA. The redeveloped coastal low still takes off to the east, so main thump of snow will come in a quick 6 hour burst, with light precipitation continuing through Thursday with onshore flow. The main concern here is that if the GFS is the start of a model trend, we could see yet another signficant snow event here. Would still result in highest accumulations in inland SE NH and SW ME, however SW NH based on GFS output would receive 6 inches of snow. HPC is also becoming a bit more robust with snowfall. One thing is for sure, this could result in a delay, cancellation event Thursday.

Snowfall forecast for 12z Wednesday - 00z Thursday: 3" - 5"

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