Update and first outlook for Sat-Sun storm

Update on tonight and tomorrow:

Some light snow showers could affect the region before midnight, but will likely be mainly virga through midnight iwth dew point depressions staying around 15 to 18 degrees. After midnight, steady light snow will begin. Generally around .15" expected through 4am, with snow ratios possibly over 12:1 for a while. Between 4am and 8am, could see a period of moderate snowfall rates with some great snow growth potential. As for ptype, no changes in my thinking. There is a little bit of evidence that BL temps have been lower in the Mid Atlantic than the model forecasts, but I will hold steady for now with a change to light sleet and freezing rain by 8am before tapering off between 9am and 10am. No changes so far from my final snowfall forecast. Still not expecting measurable freezing rain accretion, but remember it only takes a light glazing to make roads slippery.

--- Snowday Outlook ---
No changes in my thoughts for a delay. Still very confident in at least a delay. The timing is good, and amounts will be enough to warrant it. The cancellation forecast gets a little tricky. First variable is the end time, which looks like 9am for accumulating precip, and around 10am overall. Im confident we wont see much icing, although a little bit at the end may be enough to cancel school, depending on how well the roads are treated with salt and sand - which is a variable I cant predict.

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Another short wave will move across the southeastern states and off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. The models have all thrown this storm out to sea, however recently a trend to the west has begun, so we may yet see some light snow accumulation Sat N into Sunday - no more than 2 inches. Could see low end warning criteria towards the coast however.