Wrap up - busted forecasts all around

There was not one meteorologist in the entire northeast that had this storm down. And that can be explained at least a little by the fact that no model had it down either. Model changes of up to 50 miles in the track of the surface low and mid level low occured right up to the start of the storm.

So here it is now: 1.9" accumulated through 6am. The cut off that has been advertised is located over Cheshire County where an intense band of snow over the southeast portion of the county dwindles quickly to light snow over the rest of the area.

Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely today for a total of 4 to 6 in Keene as we will still see borderline banding occuring through mid morning. Be wary that despite lower snow totals, roads will still be slippery, and visibilities could be cut short at times in falling snow. Further southeast in Jaffrey, Ringe, and Fitzwilliam, notably higher totals are likely, with storm accumulations by this evening nearing 10 inches.

This was not just a busted forecast for western New England either. The primary low in the Great Lakes was too resistent in phasing energy with the coastal low. This limited the intensification of the coastal low, both limiting QPF and a cold air supply. Overall New England will see much less snow than anybody forecasted, with only a small stripe of 12" amounts possible across NE MA and into SE NH. South of those areas, ptype becomes too much of an issue and amounts drop down to a trace towards the coast. Furthern south, the Mid Atlantic region suffered the worst kind of bust, one with no snow at all. The retard in the intensification of the low and the track further east reduced any wrap around accumulations. NYC in particular had had expectations of at least 6 inches, and over into N NJ, accumulations were forecasted to reach over a foot. The bust was realized much sooner than it was for New England, and the NWS recovered to cancel the heavy snow warning in NYC yesterday. In actuality, the highest accumulations in the Mid Atlantic were seen in N NJ with 2 to 4 inches.

Really our first major let down of the winter - but most schools still cancelled in anticipation of the storm, and were probably correct to do so since conditions will still not be suitable for travel through this morning.

Stay tuned - another storm for Friday holding the same promises as this one - will it come? Details coming up later this morning - because the surest remedy for the busted forecast blues is focusing on the next storm.