Final call for tomorrow

A solid swath of snow across Ohio and Pennsylvania will move ENE tonight, reaching W CT by 4am to 5am, and entering the Keene area by 8am. Radar is ahead of schedule right now, moving about 2 hours ahead of the model forecast consensus. The northern edge of the northern storm will be the source of the first flakes here in Keene. Maximum snowfall rates will be located to our south, along the Mass Pike. Keene will likely see only light snow in the start through about 11am. By this time, a moisture connection from the south will really kick in. Omega fields are looking good for tomorrow afternoon, however there is a lack of frontogenesis, prefered for good banding. Nevertheless, snowfall rates could reach an inch per hour for a few hours Friday afternoon. With the timing in mind, the snow will also wrap up a little earlier, probably before most people go to bed tomorrow. There is some potential for wrap around snow showers to continue through Friday night and into Saturday morning, but currently not seeing a great signal for this or any additional accumulations. GFS has leveled out, and it relatively steady in a .3 to .45" of water equivalent here. The old NAM is still robust (as it always has been) with up to .7" of water equivalent. But the new, and supposedly improved, NAM is sticking in the GFS field of play. It is also possible we see a small shift back south. So Im banking on around .35" for water. Temperatures will be the coldest for a storm we've had in a long time... probably since December. This will contribute to high snow to water ratios, on the order of 15:1. At least an easier time of shoveling tomorrow.

Snow accumulation forecast: 4" to 6"

--- Snowday Outlook ---

Three days ago it didnt look like much, and now this isnt looking too bad here in Keene. First, we're back up to a moderate snow event here. No ice involved, but a solid amount of snow too. Timing is improving favorability for some shortening of the school day. The morning commute will be fine, probably dry. But conditions will deteriorate throughout the day, and the question is how heavy the snow is by 11am, and how much is on the ground. Driving at the regular dismissal time will not be easy. The snow will accumulate easily on roads considering the antecedent cold, and patches of ice still existing on roads will be covered, and slickened more by the snow. A cancellation is very unlikely in my opinion, but the chance for an early dismissal is looking better.