Light snow Friday, more next week

No changes to my thinking from this morning. Still a lot of flipping around on the models, but starting to consolidate a little and the forecast is closing in on a drier consensus for central New England.

Northern wave moves in first with little moisture available. Expect some light snow showers starting up Friday morning and lasting through the afternoon with less than an inch of accumulation. Snow may increase in intensity briefly Friday evening as the southern wave passes south of the region. Main focus for accumulations will be south of the Mass pike where a plowable snowfall is likely. North of the pike, expect less than 4 inches, less than 3 north of route 2, and no more than 2 to 3 inches across southern NH. Snow showers may linger through Friday Night, but will be over by Saturday morning. At this point, it is a matter of deciding between 1-2 or 2-3 here. Considering growing dry consensus, I'll fall back to 1-2.

Snow accumulation forecast: 1" to 2"

---

Signal is growing for an intense storm system to affect the country next week. Timing is still up in the air, along with just about everything else too. However, the overall pattern suggests a favorable set up for a Canadian airmass connection as well as coastal cyclogenysis.

Here's the latest HPC long term discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
130 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 23 2008 - 12Z WED FEB 27 2008
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER THE MID-LATITUDES OF
NOAM THRU THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITH SEPARATE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOWS UNDERCUT
MORE BLOCKY HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW FROM THE NE PAC/AK EASTWARD
ACROSS CANADA.  FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT MID-LARGER SCALES STAY AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS INTO NEXT MON-WED EVEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION TO A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH BUILDING OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER
LEVEL NOAM WEST COAST RIDGE AND AN INCREASINGLY PHASED
EAST-CENTRAL NOAM TROF.  THIS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF BIG UPSTREAM PAC
SYSTEMS IN MOST GUIDANCE.

LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN RUNS AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
DATA HAVE IN PARTICULAR SETTLED ON A FAIRLY ROBUST SCENARIO THAT
PRIMARILY ONLY DIFFER AT SMALLER SCALES WITHIN A SIMILAR LARGER
SCALE EVOLUTION.  THESE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL FOCUS SENSIBLE
WEATHER BUT HAVE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT MEDIUM RANGE TIME
SCALES.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF THE BEAST.PREFER TODAY A MOST
LIKELY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM DETERMINISTIC POSITION THAT IS WELL
WITHIN THE OVERALL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AND DOMINANT SOLUTION
CLUSTERS...LACKING A COMPELLING ENOUGH PHYSICAL REASON TO DO
OTHERWISE.   IN THIS CASE...THE HPC PRELIM AND NOW FINAL PROGS
MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY USING SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION 00 UTC ECMWF SAT-MON DUE TO BEST GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT VERSUS ALTERNATE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  AN
INCREASINGLY BLENDED SOLUTION WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WAS
FAVORED BY TUE/WED TO ADDRESS UNCERTAINTY DURING FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...BUT HPC PROGS STILL GENERALLY DEPICT COMPOSITE
SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS/POSITIONS THAT SEEM WELL SUPPORTED BY LARGER
SCALE FLOW SUPPORT COMMON FROM MOST GUIDANCE IN A PATTERN WITH
BELOW NORMAL SOLUTION SPREAD.  OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS...ONE
SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM PAC STORM AND ASSOCIATED ORGANIZED
RAIN/WINTER PCPN FOCUS HEADING INLAND SEEMS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
US WEST COAST SUN...THE CENTRAL US MON...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
PHASE IN ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY/COOLING OVER THE E-CENTRAL
TO ERN US TUE/WED AS PER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION.  A
WINTER STORM RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN SCHEDULED OUT OF PORTLAND FOR
USE IN TONIGHTS UPCOMING 00 UTC NCEP MODEL SUITE IN AN EFFORT TO
GAIN ADDITIONAL PRECURSOR ATMOSPHERIC DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM THAT
MAY LEAD TO DECREASED FORECAST ERROR.

Hopefully Ill have enough time to whip out a quick discussion tomorrow morning on the results of the recon mission.