Another bust with this past storm system. Not only were temperatures an issue, but a dry slot worked in last night, and kept much of southern New Hampshire clear of precipitation very early. Overall, some notable icing did occur, with accretion up to a quarter inch on many surfaces. However, total snow accumulation so far is 1.6". This is mainly due to the fact that the precipitation cut off very early here. Scattered snow showers behind the storm system could add another inch today, so overall expect around 2 to 3 inches for a storm total. Most weather forecasts busted. The closest I can find is from WMUR this time which dropped their forecast to 3 inches yesterday evening. The NWS kept 4 to 8 inches in the forecast through midnight and their morning forecast in fact continues a forecast for 3 to 5. The ice was enough to delay school this morning.
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Behind this storm, an at least normal air mass will move into the region, supporting snow for most precipitation events over the next few weeks. The next notable snow threat will be Saturday Night, as low pressure moves north of the Great Lakes. There should not be any precipitation type issues with this event. Frontogenisys over the region will trigger a period of strong ascent, encouraging moderate snowfall. The models are in agreement for at least .25" of water equivalent. While a secondary low pressure is expected to develop along the coast, it had been forecasted to develop too late to have any impact on the area. If it were to develop earlier, we could be talking about more substantial snows.
Snowfall accumulation forecast: 2.5" to 4"
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Next on the list is a southern stream storm system, but that is currently projected to head west of the Apps on Thursday. This is another one of those fun forecasts ahead with precipitation type problems galore. With a period of notable cold ahead after the weekend, cold air damming should hold strong in this case, suggesting a possible icing situation, which we have all come to know and love.
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In the long term, still no great signal for cold air. The PNA is forecasted to reach back to neutral for the next couple of weeks, which should keep the Pacific Jet at rest a little bit. The AO will drop to neutral as well, but the NAO is forecasted to rise slowly up to +1SD. This will be our problem for sustaining any push of cold air. It looks like an active weather pattern will continue, but with "fun" storms like these with major issues regarding precipitation type.
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Im still liking our opprotunities in the last week of February and into March. The stratosphere has just recently commenced in another near record warming. The warming still isnt reaching past 30mb, and zonal flow has not reversed past 10mb. This warming does not appear to be a pulse in the previous warming transitioning to the surface, which suggests this will not have a very large impact at the surface. Still, this should encourage some displacement of the polar vortex. Regardless of the result of the stratospheric warming, there has been a good signal for the NAO dropping back by the beginning of March. And this time, also, a more west based NAO. My focus for snow potential is March 6th through the 8th.
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