Snow / ice likely Tue - Wed

Once again, a storm to track with huge water equivalent. Very good consensus between the models for over an inch of water, possibly an inch and a half. Of course when that is guarenteed, the next issue that arrises is precipitation type. We will be going into this storm with a very cold air mass in place. Low pressure moving south of the Great Lakes on Tuesday will spread light precipitation over the region after 3pm as the warm front lifts north. This will warm mid level temperatures south of the mass pike quickly, changing snow to freezing rain by the evening and rain overnight. 850mb temperatures should stay below freezing in Keene for the initial thump of precipitation through Tuesday Night. This will allow for significant accumulations through 3am. After that, ptype becomes more of an issue. Cold front stalls to the west, as a wave of low pressure develops in the southeast. This wave will move northeast, enhancing precipitation along the front by late morning Wednesday. The track of the low will determine ultimately how much water equivalent is dumped here. The GFS currently tracks it just too far east, which allows the front to cross us by the early afternoon - ending precipitation. Wednesday morning will likely be the time of most issues with ptype. Regardless of the track of the primary or secondary lows, still count on a switch to sleet in the morning as 850mb temperatures warm above freezing. The back end thump of snow does not look too impressive at this time, but that could change.

Snow accumulation forecast: 5" to 8"
Ice accretion forecast: .2" to .35"

--- Snowday Outlook ---
Wednesday is looking very good for a snowday. This storm will last well into the day Wednesday, reducing chances for a delay. Snowday potential is looking very good.

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Believe it or not, we've got another one to track right after this one. Both the GFS and EURO develop low pressure along the Gulf Coast and moves it east and then north along the east coast to just outside the benchmark. Im not concerned wtih ptype at this time. Best chance for snow is if this storm can phase with the northern branch storm over the eastern Great Lakes. At this time, the northern storm moves too quickly for that to occur. Nevertheless, it looks like a good opprotunity for a moderate snow event.

Initial snowfall guess: 3" to 6"