The forecast models are very unreliable right now, and a gut feeling forecast would probably be more accurate at this time. In the last 24 hours, the models flipped around twice. After the last post I made, the models drove the storm further south, but beginning just recently with a huge jump in the 06z run, putting us back in the ball game for a potential late season winter storm. (By the way just now starting to go back south a bit again). Continues to look like over .75" of water equivalent is likely and now focused further north with the axis of highest w/e probably along I90. The question turns back to ptype. Precipitation moving in later this evening will be in the form of rain. Surface temperatures will fall to freezing by 4am tomorrow morning, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored as well. I think that strong dynamics associated with this system will overpower mid level warming and allow ptype to be snow in the early morning hours Friday. Ptype will remain snow through the remainder of the storm. The only snowfall forecast I can give with confidence right now is 2 to 12. It is also looking more likely that the 0C isotherm will fall near the NH/MA border on Friday, making accumulations vary significantly in Cheshire County. This will be another elevation event which are common this time of year.
Snow accumulation for elevations above 1000ft: 4 - 7
Snow accumulation for elevations below 1000ft: 3 - 5
--- Snowday Outlook ---
Flipping a coin is the best way to go with this one. Timing is favorable for a cancellation. The question is whether accumulations will be high enough especially by 6am.
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