Highly amplified pattern

While sunny skies and 70 degree weather has returned to New England after a chilly start to May, the cold and storminess will be back upon us over the next week.

Low pressure will move south of the region tomorrow afternoon, and strengthen steadily as it turns northeast. Intense mid level warm air advection will advance ahead of the storm. Rain will move through SNE Friday afternoon, reaching Keene by the evening hours. Rainfall should be fairly light in Keene as we will be on the northern fringe of the storm, however further south could see some serious flooding issues. The forecast models have been consistent in bringing over 3 inches of rain to parts of the northern Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. There will be a sharp cut off in accumulations to the north, so some changes are possible for Keene if the models trend to the north, which has been a common occurrence in the past 6 months. In addition to rainfall, high wind gusts will be likely along coastal sections as the low bombs out to our east.

The second storm potential is yet another coastal storm that has been advertised consistently by both the GFS and Euro for Monday into Tuesday. This one will deepen quickly as well, creating massive height falls in the region. The possibility exists for temperatures to drop enough to mix snow in with the rain. More details on this will be posted later.