Active weather on the way

After a long stretch of sunny dry weather, a significant nor'easter could affect the region Thursday Night into Sunday morning. It appears now that the two storms (the low off the North Carolina coast and the tropical system near the Dominican Republic) will remain separate entities, however both could affect the region. The first wave of rain will come in Thursday Night in association with WAA from the upper low to the south, peaking during the day Friday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. The second round reach us during the day Saturday, but the focus will be further east. This is a very interesting senario that could have many different outcomes. At this point, I still expect the wave 93L to develop into Tropical Storm Kyle once it moves to the east of the Bahamas, and then move just east of New England. By the time it reaches 40N, it will likely be transitioning to a hybrid storm as it interacts with the upper low. The track should keep most of the wind and rain over the coast, however one aspect of it transitioning to a hybrid is an expanding precipitation field. All told, 1.5" to 2.5" of rain is possible in Keene between Thursday Night and Sunday morning. Locally up to 7" could fall across eastern New England. Winds could gust up to 50mph on the Cape and islands, with gusts up to 30mph inland.

During this period, some notable temperature fluctuations could occur. Friday will initially be chilly as easterly winds draw in a maritime layer with dense overcast. Warm air advection will help boost temperatures up on Saturday and Sunday.

As the system departs, cooler air will flow into the northeast, however clouds will linger. The next shortwave that will affect us, reaches the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning, swinging a front through New England with a chance of showers. The exact evolution of the 500mb pattern is uncertain, but will definitely be volatile. The GFS has been insistent on a closed low dropping through the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes during this period, and bringing some very chilly temperatures along with it. The GWO should swing through phase 2 around this time, which favors below normal temperatures across the eastern two thirds of the nation.