There has been notable change even just within the last two hours. First off, the NHC has issued a special advisory to upgrade Hanna to a hurricane. At this point, the NHC remains conservative in their intensity forecast before landfall, bringing Hanna to 80kts. Hanna continues to be affected by shear and the system is still far from symmetrical. However it is a very large storm. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 160 miles and hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center. The convection showing up on satellite shrouds much of the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Hispanoila. Amazingly, cloud tops havent warmed much at all this afternoon, and I have a feeling that if shear doesnt increase, there could be a show with the diurnal convective max tonight. Shear is the tricky part. Hanna is in a semi favorable area right now, but there is shear close by on her north and south sides, and this will keep strengthening in check.
Quick wind forecast:
00hr ... 65kts
12hr ... 80kts
24hr ... 80kts
36hr ... 80kts
48hr ... 85kts
72hr ... 90kts
96hr ... 90kts
120hr .. 35kts ... inland
TD 9 is looking more and more organized. The latest models initialized with "Ike" so we have another named storm scouring the Atlantic. It initialized at 40kts, and I anticipate steady strengthening to hurricane status within 48 hours. Relatively low ocean heat content and inadequate 200mb divergence will restrain rapid intensification.
Invest 99L is displaying nice spiral banding into a solid CDO with a vertically aligned center. We may have a east Atlantic tropical depression by tomorrow morning if organization holds.
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