Sunday, November 30, 2008

Looking ahead

Temperatures are above freezing to stay now, with rain pouring down. Rain will continue through daybreak, probably wrapping up before 9am tomorrow.

With a fresh inch of snow on the ground, this storm's wintry lifespan is over, and attention now turns to coming week.

After a spike in temperatures tomorrow morning ahead of the storm, high temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday will hit around 40.

A storm system and associated cold front will approach the region Wednesday night, ushering back in warmer air. Precipitation will move in on Thursday, in the form of rain and snow showers. Temperatures will be falling through the day in accordance with the frontal passage. No accumulation is expected at this time.

My main focus in the long term is now on Sunday 12/7. The GFS has been suggesting a clipper moving east into New England, with secondary development to our south and east. Verbatem, the GFS is a clear miss, with very little in the way of precipitation. However, this is where we want it at this time frame, because the GFS has a southeast / flat bias. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts secondary development much closer to the region, which would deliver a solid advisory level snow event. With a developing -NAO and trough in the east, cold air doesnt look like a problem ... yet. There has recently been the tendency to amplify systems and shift them west as time passes, but I think this one might be more wintry for us.

As I stated a few days ago on the main page, I believe we are headed toward a snowy period.

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