We have the cold. Cold enough to break records. Today, much of interior SNE was stuck below freezing for the first time this season. The record / near record cold will continue through the weekend with highs between 30 and 36 and lows between 12 and 19. A couple of disturbances will bring clouds and maybe a few flurries to the area through the weekend, however it will remain dry, with no appreciable precipitation. That could change Monday through Wednesday of next week. The GFS and ECMWF have been advertising a clipper moving through the Great Lakes regions. The pattern shown on both models have modest differences right now, with the GFS maintaining a stronger primary low, while the ECMWF develops a secondary low off of the Mid Atlantic coast. The GFS has the H5 low in southern Ontario while the Euro has it down near West Virginia. Below is the 12z ECMWF 144hr:
The Euro's solution, with secondary low pressure moving close to the coast, would be warmer with likely ptype in question. The GFS would be all snow, but relatively low QPF. Regardless, both models have at least somewhat moved closer to a consensus, which I believe could end up being a decent snow event for at least interior SNE on Tuesday. I think this one should be watched closely.
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Tuesday 11/25 is the last day of school before Thanksgiving break for many schools.
If all things work to our advantage, we
may enter break a day sooner.
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