Sunday, December 21, 2008

Another round of snow

Snow has started to fall across the area (from the current storm: it really never stopped). Currently snow growth is marginal and there are a lot of small dendrites in the mix. The precipitation shield has yet to develop fully, and snow will be showery in nature for the next few hours. Count on accumulation of 2 to 3 inches through noon. After noon, snow will begin to get steadier, and the heaviest snow will likely fall between 2pm and 6pm. This will occur alongside the secondary coastal low rapidly strengthening to our southeast. The NAM has even been advertising the possibility of thundersnow in northern MA and SW NH. Regardless, we'll likely see 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates during this time. Additional accumulations of 4 to 7 inches will be possible by 6pm. As the secondary low lifts north, how fast it strengthens will determine how much backlash we get. At this time, it looks like snow showers may continue through midnight, with maybe another inch of accumulation. Total accumulation of 7 to 11 inches is expected.

The big story come Sunday night and Monday morning will be the winds. Sustained winds of 15 to 25mph with gusts of 40 to 50mph will be possible after 6pm today as the low pressure rapidly intensifies to around 970mb. For portions of Maine, this will be in time for blizzard conditions tonight. For us, the snow will have shut off, limiting visibility drop. However, the winds will make clean-up difficult as clean streets can quickly become snow covered again as strong winds blow over banks of fresh dry snow.

To our south and east, precipitation type will become an issue for the I95 corridor. A large front-end dump of snow is possible before the changeover however. Places near the coast will be especially susceptable to power outages tonight as winds blow through trees and power lines laden with wet snow and ice.

--- Snowday outlook ---
Falling snow will be over well before timing for a delay or cancellation becomes an issue. However, the winds will have to be monitored, because of the reasoning above that clean streets can quickly become snow covered again. I think the potential still exists for a delay to be necessary for clean-up on Monday.

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