Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Final thoughts for tomorrow

SREF ensembles are a little drier, and the NAM is slowly returning to reality. Still thinking 3 to 5 inches for a total. There is a good consensus for 1.5 to 2 inches by 7am, again, with peak snowfall rates between 5am and 8am. This could require a delay tomorrow morning. Snow will continue through the morning, but with dendritic growth lacking, snowfall rates will be light. An addition 1 to 2 inches will be possible between 7am and 10am with another .5 to 1" after 10am. After 1pm, mid level warmth (850-700mb thickness around 1550m) will cause snow to mix with and change to light sleet and freezing rain. A light glaze of ice accretion is possible, but likely nothing measurable, and precipitation should shut off by 4pm.

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