Happy New Year

Snow is winding down across Cheshire County. The banding that sat over the area most of this morning has rotated south and east. Low pressure will rapidly intensify southeast of the region, supporting strong convective bands of snow across eastern Massachusetts through the afternoon. Total accumulations in these areas will be between 5 and 10 inches. In Keene, excellent snow growth supported a period of large dendrites that accumulated up to 3" per hour at times with ratios around 20:1 !!! The storm was really only about 3 hours long, however accumulations of 6 to 8 inches have been reported across SW NH, and light snow through this afternoon could tack on another inch.

As this storm wraps up, it's time to look ahead. Behind this storm, much colder air will stream into the region. Highs tomorrow will not get out of the teens. With winds gusting to around 30mph, windchill values will tumble below zero tonight through tomorrow night.

The storm on the third that models were so well in agreement on for days disappeared. Flow will be more progressive, and the clipper that was to trigger coastal development will be the main show, with the secondary development well east of the area. Some light accumulations are not out of the question with the clipper.

A negative NAO should hold through the second week of January. This will support below normal temperatures through the period. After the 15th, ECMWF and GFS ensembles support the block breaking down. However, during this time, +PNA ridging will be built up in the west, with the EPO returning to neutral. So a trough may continue to hold tight over the east. I think a general cold east pattern will last through the 20th.

As for storm potential, January third has been eliminated, and that leaves the next 7 days dry for the most part. January 7th has been on the radar of many for some time, and that threat continues to be advertised on the GFS and ECWMF.

I'll have more this weekend, regarding how the rest of January looks to shape up, and some thoughts into February with a look at current tropical forcing and stratospheric tendencies.

Happy New Year everyone