The 00z NAM operational and parallel runs both shifted south considerably, and gives a moderate to heavy snowfall for Cheshire County with an historic ice storm across northern MA.
The 00z GFS didnt change much from it's previous runs, with the historic ice storm centered closer to SNH.
The 00z ECMWF shifted a full at least 100 miles further east. Which brings the ice/snow line further SE.
The 06z runs of the NAM and GFS shifted north a bit. But if 12z runs continue a southward tendency, the 06z runs dont hold much weight.
Current analysis in the southwest indicates the trough is digging a little deeper than model guidence has forecasted. This would place the low further south in the Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Regardless of the ultimate mid and upper level temperature profile, strong ageostrophic northerly flow will lock in cold temperatures at the surface for much of Massachusetts northward. This guarentees that with a layer above 0C, significant icing will occur. If the mid levels cool any, we will be talking more about sleet and snow.
Accumulations:
Snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches can be expected at this point. This forecast in particular is destined to change because of a very sharp gradient in the temperature profile.
Ice accretion could reach .5" to 2.5" across much of northern and central MA and southern NH.
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