Recap and Long term

The forecast for a round of frigid weather verified without any problem at all. Looking at the last 7 days, the northeast was thrown into a deep freeze with highs in the single digits and teens and lows down into the teens to 20 below zero! The one saving grace was that winds remained relatively light, so wind chill values amazingly remained above the advisory threshold.

Nonetheless, records were broken in the northeast during this frigid stretch. Closest to home, Concord, NH fell to -24F on the 16th, breaking the old daily record of -19F set in 1984. Concord fell to zero or below five straight mornings from the 13th to the 17th. Its daily mean temperature has been below average since the 9th.




Here in Keene, the past week has been dry, with no significant storm activity (as can be demonstrated by it being just the second full week of school since October). However, we still got snowfall, with the past two weekends featuring moderate events (7.8" on the 11th, and 7.0" in the last 36 hours). Further east and north, the past 36 hours was much more significant with total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches across eastern Massachusetts. Boston, MA is already up to 41.6" of snow this season (25.2" above the normal, and 6.9" ahead of last year, and just .1" behind Worcester this year!). Many of the suburbs surrounding Boston have passed the half century mark, and are close to the 57.3" so far here in Keene.

A strong mid level trough will continue to hold tight across the east through the next couple of days.

In the near term, yet another shortwave is moving around the trough, along a frontal boundary near the coast, with light snow currently overspreading NJ. The situation is similar to last night, with the radar tendencies not matching model forecasts. Portions of eastern New England could see another trace to 2 inches of snow through tonight.

Behind that shortwave, a very intense piece of energy will rotate south through Georgia later tonight, with surface low pressure off the coast by Tuesday morning. This low will throw back moderate precipitation across portions of the southeast, and winter storm watches and warnings have been posted across North and South Carolina. Latest model guidance continues to take the low pressure out to sea, well east of the region, however considering model volatility for the last few events, it isn't out of the question that eastern New England gets clipped with some light snow by this storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning.

The trough over the east will lift north and east with the ocean storm, allowing moderating temperatures (possibly even breaking freezing in Keene on Thursday). This will coincide with the breaking down / retrogression of the PNA ridge that has been the culprit of the record cold here. This marks the beginning of a new pattern (which is one of the reasons for the models poor performance as of late - they usually have difficulties around pattern changes). The ECMWF and GFS 8-10 day ensemble mean H5 forecasts agree on developing above normal heights over the Bering Sea. This associates with below normal 2m temperatures across the Northwest CONUS and upper Midwest, and a ridge over the Southeast. Temperatures will likely reach above normal up through the mid Atlantic region by the last few days of January and into the beginning of February. New England will likely escape a significant warm up. In fact, this pattern may be prime for Miller B type storms, and some more notable snow accumulation across the region.