Slight trend north, still snow

The ECMWF and NAM continue to flood New England with warmth on Wednesday, changing snow to sleet and freezing rain even up to the NH/MA border, with plain rain making an entrance across S CT, RI, and SE MA. However the GFS has been fairly steady with a more southern solution, with all snow down to I90, before some mixing with sleet occurs. The main difference between the model groups is in the handling of the shortwave energy. The ECMWF and NAM consolidate all the energy, and have a slower moving system that has time to amplify and cut left. Meanwhile, the GFS is faster and trails some energy behind so that the storm doesnt amplify to its fullest potential.

Regardless of a slight trend northward continuing, at this time I still think we will stay all snow in Keene through the event. Although, if the trend continues notably on the 00z ECMWF, I would say sleet potential increases a lot here.

This is a moisture laden storm with strong confluence and decent omega. All this translates to water equivalents near an inch region wide, and the potential for periods of heavy precipitation during the day Wednesday.

Even if we remain all snow here in Keene, ratios won't be spectacular considering the warming occuring aloft, but 12:1 will be sufficient to bring us near a foot of snow. Further south, a significant front-end dump of snow is likely with 4-10 likely across most of SNE before mixing occurs. Coast, cape, and islands will see 1-3.

So specifically for Keene, my current thinking holds at 7" to 11". Some model convergence would definitely help boost my confidence in this forecast tomorrow.

Timing -
Snow should start before 5am, with around an inch by 7am. Snow will fall moderately through 10am, with the heaviest falling between 10am and 5pm, tapering to light snow Wednesday night.

--- Snowday Outlook ---
Timing is a little sketchy if it shifts any later, but still in a good position. Heavy snow accumulations look likely, and any shift north would introduce some ice (not fun, but icing on the cake in terms of snowday potential).