The model guidance has trended wetter so far today. With a decent jump to a consensus of closer to .7" to 1.0". In addition, the GFS has shifted a little slower with the onset of precipitation. Still should see light snow break out by 3am, with around an inch before 7am. Snow will increase in intensity with the onset of warm air advection aloft with frontogenesis triggering strong omega. Could see a period of heavy snow falling between 11am and 2pm. The NAM is even slower than this, keeping snow light through noon, before bringing in heavier precipitation in the later afternoon, and not bringing the secondary low over Cape Cod until midnight.
Regardless of the timing, it also appears mid level warming will not be quite as severe. Combined with a thick layer of below freezing temperatures near the surface, precipitation should remain snow for longer, possibly into the early afternoon before any sleet starts mixing in. Should be snow and sleet through the afternoon and evening, with maybe some freezing rain mixing in. As low pressure intensifies to our east, precipitation will change back to snow between 10pm and midnight Thursday. Could see some bands of moderate to heavy snow through 6am Thursday that could tack on another 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.
All in all, we are looking at a long duration winter storm causing numerous delays across the region Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Timing is a little uncertain, and precipitation type still has time to shift around, however whatever falls, there will be a lot of it.
...Totals...
Snow through Wednesday evening: 4" to 6"
Snow through Thursday morning: 5" to 8"
Sleet accumulation around a half inch
Ice accretion around a tenth inch.
--- Snowday Outlook ---
The timing has added a little twist to things Wednesday, although with precipitation ongoing by 6am Wednesday, I would still think a cancellation would be decided upon. However, any shifts may push it more towards the early release threshold. Thursday is looking more interesting for delay potential.
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