Across Oklahoma and Arkansas, a significant severe weather / tornado event is underway. The SPC has placed the area under a moderate risk for severe weather, and numerous tornado watches have been issued.
This is all in association with an intense shortwave with a lot of energy that will close off and head our way tomorrow. At the surface, low pressure will shift into the southern plains tonight, with a triple point low developing over Missouri and moving into Michigan tomorrow evening. The adjoined warm front will move north across Pennsylvania and New Jersey Wednesday evening, crossing into SNE Wednesday night, with showers spreading across the area after 5pm.
Meanwhile, another ball of energy will drop south into northern Quebec, with low pressure swinging a cold front through southern Quebec. This will force the southern storm south a little bit, preventing a full surge of warm air.
Regardless, at least the northern edge of the warm sector will overtake the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with highs tomorrow reaching the upper 40's, and lows only dropping to the upper 30's. In the warm sector there will be enough conditional instability to fuel some heavier downpours. As the cold front crosses around 4am Thursday morning, there could a be decent burst of instability out ahead, possibly sufficient for some elevated convection (above the inversion layer). This could mean some heavier downpours with some thunder as well. Given low freezing levels (for convective activity) around 10,000ft, some small hail could fall as well. Gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage.
Further south, the warm sector will be better established, with less cold air damming at the surface, and some strong thunderstorms may be possible across NJ and PA. Further west, into western PA, WV, and OH, conditions will support a continuation of some of the severe weather being experienced today.
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