Model guidance has trended south and weaker in the last 24 hours with low pressure shooting off the Carolina coast Sunday Night. Rather than the Atlantic bomb that was progged, the low takes an additional 12 hours to intensify, and consequently delays its northward turn. What this means is that our ideal 50/50 low is further southeast and weaker.
As a result, mid and upper level confluence over eastern NA is weaker, and surface high pressure is free to move east out of the region as the main event approaches.
Out west, cyclogenesis occurs over northern Colorado, with surface low pressure moving across Kansas, central Illinois, and Ohio. Latest model runs have backed off secondary development, however continue to advertise strong upper level jet dynamics along the coast and south of New England. This would suggest energy transferring to the coast with secondary low pressure moving south of Long Island. If this occurred, cold air would be reinforced, and allow a mainly snow event for interior SNE.
Otherwise, as currently projected, the primary low stays in control, and snow mixes with and changes to rain at least up to the NH/MA border and up into SE ME. Surface cold air damming will be minimal so not expecting any icing issues - should be mainly just snow and rain.
As for the timing of the storm, light snow should start Wednesday afternoon and increase in intensity Wednesday night. Snow will mix with rain overnight. Cold air advection moves in Thursday morning, changing all precipitation to snow. Light snow will taper off in the early afternoon.
At this time, considering model QPF between .5" and 1.25", and ptype issues and only marginal snowgrowth, I'm expecting a moderate snow event of 3" to 6".
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