Saturday, April 11, 2009

A drier week ahead


After a couple dismal rainy weeks, we have a streak of sunny warmer weather ahead. However, we'll have to get through the weekend first. Today, low pressure tracking south of New England will keep showers active over southeast New England, and lock in clouds across the rest of the region. Today should be dry in Keene, but dismal. There is a chance that clouds break a little in the afternoon for some sun, and this could help high temperatures into the low 50's. Low pressure pulls away tonight, with high pressure building into the Great Lakes region. The pressure gradient will generate gusty north winds that will advect colder air into the region through the day on Sunday. Skies will be in clearing mode tonight with temperature dropping into the 20's. Sunny skies will help a bit on Sunday, but with 850mb temperatures down to around -10C, highs will struggle to reach the low to mid 40's. Likewise, Sunday night, clear skies will allow for maximum cooling with lows dropping into the low 20's or even upper teens. Winds of 15 to 25mph will continue through this period, which could generate wind chills down into the 30's on Sunday and near 10 on Monday morning.

Sunny skies continue for Monday. Short wave mid level ridging will build into the region, allowing for some warmer high temperatures, but clear skies and lighter winds by Monday night will once again allow lows to plummet to around 20.

A storm system currently deepening over the southwest states will move into the southern plains by tomorrow evening, and lift toward the Ohio Valley on Monday. Latest model guidance is reaching agreement on strong high latitiude blocking developing over the North Atlantic. This should shove the storm and associated moisture to the south of New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. This still requires some attention, however for now the forecast looks dry and in fact mostly sunny. High temperatures will also be on a path to recovering as ridging builds in from the west.

Anticyclonic flow with very little moisture will help keep skies sunny for Thursday and Friday. 850mb temperatures will be on the increase and with maximum solar heating we could push into the 60's on Friday and maybe Saturday. A short wave will ride over the ridge on Saturday with an attendant cold front. This system along with developing ridging in the western states toward the 8-10 day period will push ridging in the east through the region fairly quickly, pumping colder temperatures back into the region by the start of the following week.

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