For the record?

I have to make this write up quick, or as quick as I can make it. Anyway, showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to peruse southern New England as secondary low pressure deepens near the New Jersey shore. The threat for showers and storms will diminish later this evening as the warm front lifts to our north. Mild temperatures can be expected tonight.

On Wednesday, occluded front crosses the region. Upper level trough remains to our west, with another intense piece of energy rotating around it. This will trigger a rapidly developing low with associated cold frontal boundary that will cross in the late afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Considering the cold pool aloft some stronger storms could contain small hail. High temperatures will make it into the upper 50's as we'll be in the warm(er) sector of the system.

Wednesday night will feature the best chance of precipitation. The evening hours will feature showers and thunderstorms. Past midnight, as low pressure strengthens quickly over the area, strong vertical velocities combined with steep lapse rates dropping temperatures below freezing above 3000ft, will result in the potential for a change to snow across higher elevations. The NAM is particularly robust with this, and has in fact been advertising a coating to an inch above 1000ft, and significant accumulations over the Greens and Whites.

On Thursday, trough axis passes through the region. Cold air aloft with residual moisture will maintain clouds and a slight chance of a shower or two. Clearing skies will allow for radiational cooling yielding a chilly night.

Friday will feature sunny skies and rapidly climbing 850mb temperatures. By the afternoon, 850mb temps will be nearing 10C. High temperatures at the surface will reach near 70.

Saturday and Sunday both look sunny and dry, and very warm. 500mb heights top out around 582dm, with 850mb temps around 15C. Elevated mixing signal looks good, with lapse rates likely approaching 7 to 8C/km. High temperatures will soar into the low to mid 80's in Keene, with upper 80's or even a 90 degree reading somewhere in interior southern New England. This has the potential to break some records. Courtesy of the NWS:

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  LISTED BELOW ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DATES.

SATURDAY APRIL 25TH         SUNDAY APRIL 26TH
BDL: 87 IN 1915             BDL: 83 IN 1908
BOS: 83 IN 1982             BOS: 85 IN 1872
ORH: 83 IN 1942             ORH: 85 IN 1915
PVD: 83 IN 1982             PVD: 82 IN 1925

By early next week, the forecast becomes trickier. A couple of waves ride up and over the ridge, but the trend has been toward weakening them considerably and keeping the tight thermal gradient north in southern Quebec. There is a good chance that southern Quebec, Ontario, into the Dakotas will receive a prolonged period of strong to severe thunderstorm activity through Tuesday.

As more and more waves ride to our north, moisture levels will begin to increase and by Tuesday, clouds will be on the increase over central and northern New England. ECM and GFS agree on developing an intense ball of energy over Manitoba and rotating it eastward. This should be the final straw to break the camel's back, so expecting showers and thunderstorms mid week followed by falling temperatures.