6/27 Tropical Atlantic Outlook

Invest 93L, the wave in the western Caribbean, continues to feature strong convection. It is located within a region of abundant deep layer moisture and is being supported by low level convergence and a nearby upper level ridge promoting good outflow. At the moment however it is fairly disorganized with a large portion of the convection displaced from an open low level circulation analyzed at 12z at 19.2N/86.2W. The upper level low to it's west has added some distance between it and the disturbance, so shear has been lessening, in addition to the establishment of an outflow channel westward. Based on current organization however, tropical cyclone development is unlikely for the next 24 to 36 hours. Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions will support development and a tropical depression could form. At this time, significant developement beyond an intensity of 50kt is unlikely. Invest 93L should continue on a northwest trajectory for the next 24 hours. Beyond that point, models have moved toward breaking down mid level ridging to the north, resulting in a pull eastward. Most of the guidance sends it off toward the Florida peninsula. However, the same guidance has a bias toward greater intensity and climatology also argues for a track further west. At this point, much of the central and eastern Gulf coast from Gulfport, Mississippi to Tampa, Florida should monitor the progress of 93L.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the upper level low centered near 24N/52W continues to produce strong shear over a large portion of the central basin. Dry Sarahan air is keeping the eastern Caribbean free of any thunderstorm activity. Convection remains active within the ITCZ between 50 and 55W and in association with an embedded tropical wave between 35 and 40W.