Improving toward the weekend

Synopsis:

Continued easterly flow is keeping clouds locked in over central and eastern MA, NH, and ME this afternoon, with peaks of sun further west and south. This general pattern will continue through the week with improving weather and warmer temperatures toward the weekend.

Discussion:

Upper level low sitting over New England will be sliding east tomorrow. However, surface low to our east will hold tight, keeping flow coming in off the ocean. This will lock in clouds over the eastern half of the region while some peaks of sun will be possible over western New England into New York. The next upper low will drop into the Great Lakes region with surface occluded surface low over southern Ontario. With the frontal boundary to our west and any diurnal instability that develops, we will see another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will be similar to today, generally in the mid 70's. Shower activity should break up overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Lows dropping into the upper 50's.

The remains of the last low will decay and slide east while the upper low over the Great Lakes sags southward. We actually could get a stretch of partial clearing as winds turn to the west and the next boundary approaches. With the help of some solar radiation, we could see decent instability develop toward the afternoon, and a round of thunderstorms, possibly strong. Highs will rebound into the upper 70's.

On Wednesday, not much change in the position of the upper low over the Great Lakes. Triple point low pressure will develop by Monday Night and slide northeast under New England on Wednesday. This will renew easterly flow over the region with clouds and cooler temperatures than Tuesday. Again, there will be a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Thursday through Saturday will feature improvement as the upper low weakens and lifts northward. We will still have to contend with clouds and scattered showers, but temperatures will be on the rebound and by Saturday we'll be up into the upper 70's with partial sunshine.

By Sunday, the low will be mostly out of the way, and we could get through the day dry and with partly to mostly sunny skies. At this point, model guidance becomes shakier, with some suggesting a break down of the block to our east while others hold it up and keep below normal heights over New England. At this point I tend to think a return to seasonally normal temperatures is likely next week, but any real warm up will hold off until later in the month.