Monday, February 15, 2010

00z models and nowcast

Radar echoes are moving northeast across western CT. Light snow has been reported in NYC and LI, but nothing more than flurries yet in CT. This light snow will work its way north into the area by early tomorrow morning.

00z NAM is coming in notably further south with the track of the mid level low. Consequently dry slot issues are avoided for a lot of the region, but the best lift will be to the south of the Keene area for the morning round of snow. This lends more confidence to the idea of generally only light accumulations through the early afternoon. However, the NAM is very robust with the afternoon-evening round from the CCB. Could see some heavy snow rates through 7pm. Totals of 4" to 7" still on track.

---Snowday Outlook---
Still not much cause for raising numbers. The main round of snow will be later in the afternoon. Put up some early release numbers for fun. In general, light snowfall rates, with relatively warm temperatures will keep roads from getting too bad through the early afternoon. The evening commute could be a different story.

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