Blizzard of 2007 winding down

Third year in a row with a genuine blizzard, but this one was in Keene! Blizzard warnings were issued this morning (and for the first time that I can remember one issued here). The blizzard part, however, really just started an hour or so ago as the storm rapidly deepens south of Cape Cod. While only a few heavy snow squalls are left behind the storm, winds will steadily strengthen through this evening, at times gusting over 40mph. The winds combined with the fallen snow and intermittent falling snow will create brief white out conditions. Be cautious if you venture out. Just because snow isnt falling, doesnt mean hazards dont exist.

The snow accumulations so far in Keene have reached 11.2 inches. This is still 5 inches under my official 12hr-before-storm forecast, and 7 inches under the NWS official 12hr-before-storm forecast. We wont get enough tonight to fill the gap, but the possibility does exist for an additional 2 to 4 inches before the storm is all said and done. Analysis on the storm, which I will put together tomorrow, will show that we got dry slotted numerous times in Keene, which kept precipitable water amounts down. In addition, when banding did move through the area, upper air temperatures jumped a few degrees, resulting in bursts of sleet rather than snow. Pictures will also be posted tomorrow!

Sunny skies will greet us tomorrow morning as cold dry high pressure takes control of the region. Temperatures will struggle into the teens, and winds gusting up to 45mph will drive windchills below zero. We may have a few issues tomorrow morning visibility wise as the winds continue to drive around the powdery snow that fell today. Tomorrow night, temperatures will plummet to around zero.

Friday, a weak disturbance and moisture supplied from the Lakes region will bring a chance of flurries or a brief snow shower. Otherwise, skies will remain partly cloudy and temperatures will remain cold with highs in the teens again and lows around zero.

The weekend, temperatures will rebound out ahead of an approaching storm system. Highs both days will reach the upper 20s to near 30. Saturday, skies will be partly cloudy but with increasing cloudcover toward the evening. Sunday, a chance of snow showers and perhaps another accumulation possibility. The clipper alone could give us a quick inch, however the models have been fairly consistent in developing a low to the south of the storm and moving it northeastward. This would probably not affect inland New England very much, however the Cape and islands could have some enhanced snowfall for a few hours if this pans out. So something to watch in the medium term forecast.

Winds wind up a little behind the storm for Presidents day, dropping temperatures back to the 20s. We may have to monitor the weekend storm for lasting into Monday (PD3? Dont think so). Dry weather will be the rule through at least the middle of next week.

Long term and climate:

Not too much in the way of active weather through the next few weeks. The southeast ridge will begin to rebuild but slowly. Temperatures will slowly moderate up to near norms by the 19th or so, and we could start seeing a few days above normal as we approach March.
The month of March looks like it will be overall above normal temperatures wise, at least starting the first few days above normal. Looking at the teleconnections and ensemble forecast, it looks like we could still see brief arctic intrusions through early March, but anything will be short lived because of no blocking upstream or downstream.
The past week or so, El Nino has weakened considerably, and we have launched straight into a La Nina period. It appears this period will continue through at least spring '07.