Colder longer?

Teleconnections overview:
The AO, while remaining steady for the most part since the fourth, is remaining down around -2SD. The verification for the 7 day ensemble forecast is now nearing +1SD, and the 10 day will be close to +2SD shortly. The AO was attempting to begin a strengthening trend after dropping out behind the 2/2 storm, however, the short wave activity the past few days has kept the highway from the arctic to New England unchallenged. The -AO will strengthen even further with the storm next week, possibly reaching -3SD before rebounding towards neutral by the end of February. What is interesting to note, is that while a positive trend will start around the 16th, the ensemble mean forecast doesnt reach neutral until the 21st, which would leave just a week of +AO regime for February. My confidence now for below average temperatures to continue through the 20th is medium. My confidence in a below average February overall is high. Confidence in above average temperatures for the end of February is still at medium. I think we will start seeing 30s after the 19th or so.

The NAO is also trending more negative than the ensemble members forecasted. This will allow for at least some minimal blocking as a 50/50 low should set up next week. And this will keep the northern jet stream well south of the region through the 20th allowing periodic arctic intrusions, however the weakness of the blocking will mean that phasing will be harder to come by, so dont count on any historic winter storms up here for the rest of February. The medium term potential on the 14th will only be possible if the polar vortex (PV) in Canada can become strong enough to pull the southern stream low northward and force a phase event. The latest Euro run develops a much stronger PV than any other model guidence shows, and passes the low over the 40/70 benchmark on Wednesday. Other than this threat, I think that our only shots at precipitation through the 20th will be northern clipper systems. After the 20th, the rebound in the AO may be enough to bring the southern jet stream further north and therefore affect New England more directly. The down side with this is that the warmer temperature trend will start to bring precipitation type issues back into the picture.

The PNA is trending more positive than the ensemble guidence forecasts although has stayed close enough to neutral to produce minimal impact on the overall pattern. However, the continued positive PNA has reensured that troughiness will remain in the east, as blocking upstream keeps the Pacific Jet from sending us back into record warmth. The result is that the Pacific Jet is forced south along the west coast and sends energy in the southwest. For the past few weeks, the blocking in the west has kept the energy there, not allowing any connection to the jet stream flow in the southeast. The 2/14 storm will finally be able to access this energy that has been trapped in the southwest, and use it to strengthen steadily in the southeastern states on Monday. However, this connection finally made will start the slow breaking down of the ridge in the west and will send us into a neutral to -PNA regime around the 17th. This will allow for a southeast ridge to slowly develop by the 20th. There will be some lag time to when the ridge completely forces the arctic connection out of New England since the AO will remain negative through this period, but the AO will enter the positives the last week of February and put us in above average temperatures to begin March.