A very active weather pattern is in store for New England over the next week. The first system to talk about is a weak upper level low that will bring a chance of snow showers through tomorrow. Low pressure about 300 miles off the coast of Cape Cod dumped a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across RI, and central and eastern MA today. Keene has remained about 40 miles west of the precipitation throughout today and has therefore been sitting under a thick cloud layer with intermittent flurries. Flurries will continue through this evening, and could intensify to light snow after midnight. Currently on radar is a band of light to moderate snow extending from Toronto to Hartford. This area of snow will gradually lift northward, pushed by a low down in NC. The focus of accumulating snow will remain to our south and west, so not expecting much here, right now I'm thinking an inch to 1.5" by the time the snow wraps up tomorrow afternoon.
Warmer temperatures behind the frontal boundary that will lift north of the region tonight will help boost temperatures into the upper 30's to near 40 under mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday and the mid to upper 30's on Thursday.
Thursday, an area of low pressure will move south out of Canada and strengthen over the western Great Lakes region. This will continue to support warm temperatures over the region on Thursday. Skies will start off partly to mostly sunny but will cloud over by the afternoon as precipitation approaches from the west. A wet snow will likely start to fall by the late evening on Thursday. By Thursday Night, a secondary area of low pressure will have developed along the New Jersey coast and will begin to move north-northeast. The low will start to pull some energy from the Great Lakes low, and the amount of energy transfer (translating into pressure falls) will be the deciding factor on the track of the coastal low and the resulting precipitation type. Right now it appears a thick snow will continue to fall throughout the night Thursday, possibly accumulating 1 to 3 inches. On the current forecast track, the coastal low will head inland over SNE, bringing warm air into the upper levels of the atmosphere and changing precipitation to sleet and freezing rain in Keene on Friday morning. Areas within 30 miles of the coast will change to plain rain for a time Friday afternoon. Keene could see some ice accumulation before a change back to snow occurs Friday evening. Snow, possibly mixed with some sleet, will continue through Saturday morning and wind down by noontime. Total snow accumulations will greatly depend on the track of the low influencing the type of the precipitation. A larger energy transfer, a stronger coastal low, and a track further east could mean another large snowstorm for Keene with total snowfall over 6 inches. But a track further west, running inland, could result in an icy mess on Friday with an inch of slop to clean up Saturday morning.
It appears now that temperatures will rise to around 40 on Saturday as the Great Lakes low stays west and continues to draw warm air up into the region, but temperatures will moderate some on Sunday down into the mid 30's.
I'll post the long term outlook tomorrow. It will include the month of March and into early April.
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