NWS BOX AFD: "Very heavy snow"

000
FXUS61 KBOX 112042 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007...UPDATED SHORT TERM

...POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY 
SNOW...STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SEAS FOR THE 
MARINE COMMUNITY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DAY 2 OF SEVERAL LOCATIONS /MAINLY LOWER ELEVATIONS/ EXPERIENCING 
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING CAPE COD AND THE 
ISLANDS WERE JUST AS COOL OR COOLER THAN HFD/PVD/BOS THIS AFTERNOON. 
PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SATELLITE SST DATA AND TIDE 
GAGES SOME ICE HAS FORMED NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY/NANTUCKET 
SOUND/MVY SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY. THUS...KEEPING COASTAL LOCATIONS 
JUST AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE MAINLAND.

TONIGHT...
QUIET NIGHT COMING UP WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF 
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME 
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION 
OF SOME CLOUDINESS AND PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. PREDICTED MORNING LOWS WILL FALL 
INTO THE SEASONABLY COLD RANGE. 

MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE RACES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. 
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO EXPECTING DRY 
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES TOPPING OUT 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE HILLY 
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

MON NIGHT...
NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS GULF OF ME AND 
NOVA SCOTIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 
DURING THE EVENING...USHERING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS WITH TEENS IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE 
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MON NIGHT 
WILL GENERATE WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO MINUS 15. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT THAT A POWERFUL NOREASTER 
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS TO 
THE COAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  THE 
MAIN THING TO IRON OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY IS THE EXACT STORM TRACK.  
THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS DRAWN IN OFF THE OCEAN 
AND WHICH LOCATIONS CHANGE TO RAIN/SLEET.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE OF AN INLAND 
TRACK...GENERALLY TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BOSTON 
TO PROVIDENCE.  HOWEVER...WE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES WERE 
FURTHER EAST TRACKING THE STORM NEAR NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER-CAPE.  
THE UKMET/ECMWF ALSO FAVORED MORE OF THE EASTERLY TRACK FAVORED BY 
THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  WE FELT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES 
ALONG WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF TRACKED THE STORM NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE 
THAT WAS THE BEST OPTION TO FOLLOW RIGHT NOW.  ALSO...WITH A SHOT OF 
VERY COLD AIR COMING DOWN IT MAY BE HARD FOR THE STORM TO TRACK THAT 
FAR NORTHWEST.  WITH THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN NOT DISMISS THE MORE 
INLAND TRACK OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT FAVORING 
THEM AT THE TIME.  THIS WOULD BRING MORE OF A WET AND WARMER 
SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WE EXPECT SNOW TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BEGINS OVER RIDES THE  COLD DOME 
AT THE SURFACE.  THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND 
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...PULLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY BELOW 
980 MB AS IT TRACKS UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  BASED ON OUR 
FORECAST OF FOLLOWING THE GFS ENSEMBLES...WE DO THINK ENOUGH WARM 
AIR WILL COME IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO CHANGE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST 
MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  WOULD SUSPECT 
THAT EVEN BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE WOULD CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN FOR A 
TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL WARMING...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SET IN STONE.  
ALSO...CONCERNED ABOUT THE MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF 
THE MA PIKE COULD TURN SOME LOCATIONS TO SLEET EVEN WITH 
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING.

REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS.  IN FACT...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS 
TO SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.  HOWEVER...THIS IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE 
HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A PREMATURE CHANGE TO SLEET BASED ON THE 
WARMING MID LEVELS SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAIN 
TRACK.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...BASED ON THE FORECASTED TRACK WE 
PROBABLY WILL SEE LOCATIONS THAT DUE MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO 
RAIN/SLEET CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT.  THERE STILL 
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR 
MUCH OF THE REGION...AS A NICE COMMA HEAD COULD FORM AND PERSIST 
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS ARE A BIG CONCERN ON THE COAST.  THERE IS A 
VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT HIGH WIND 
CRITERIA.  ALSO...MAY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BUT OUR 
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OCCURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEAS 
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE BUILT UP ENOUGH BY THAT TIME TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR 
PROBLEMS.  THERE IS ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT ITS ONLY 
8.3 FEET SO EVEN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FEET...NOT EXPECTING 
MORE THAN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL IN ALL...WE ARE  CONFIDENT THAT A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT 
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE ARE 
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT TRACK AND THE AREA THAT WILL CHANGE TO 
RAIN/SLEET FOR A TIME.  EVEN THOUGH WE FOLLOWED THE MORE EASTERN 
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...WE CAN NOT DISMISS THE NAM/CANADIAN/AND 
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATE A WARMER/WETTER SOLUTIONS THEN WHAT 
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.  ITS TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH SINCE THE 
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THE 2ND PART OF THE 5TH PERIOD.  
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONGLY WORDED SPS.

VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW -20C.  WENT BELOW MEX 
GUIDANCE AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR WITH SNOW COVER.

MAY SEE A BIT OF A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND AS THE 
FLOW ATTEMPTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.  ALSO...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR 
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SCT TO 
BKN 2500-3000FT CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS 
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWEST WIND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMBINED 
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES...GENERATING SOME OCEAN EFFECT 
STRATO-CUMULUS 
CLOUDS. AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS 
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...YIELDING VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND. 

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 25 KT TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE 
WATERS...THEN BECOME WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS EASE A BIT SOUTH 
COAST MON...HOWEVER 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MA WATERS. 
THEN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT BECOME WIDESPREAD MON NIGHT BEHIND 
COLD FRONT.

IN THE LONG TERM...A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ON 
WEDNESDAY.  WILL RE-ISSUE THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AS THIS STORM 
WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.  OTHERWISE...GALE 
FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AT TIMES 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING 
STORM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-255.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     ANZ231-250-254.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK