Tuesday, February 27, 2007 Forecast

Not much change in the forecast since yesterday. Last night we picked up 1.0" of snow. Flurries have continued fall through this morning. There are some scattered snow showers showing up on radar in NY state in association with a weak upper level low that will scoot across the region today. No additional accumulation is expected, but leave room for the possibility of a dusting.

Temperatures will reach the mid 30's today with no help from the sun. Tonight, temperatures will fall back to around 20. Tomorrow, skies will become partly cloudy. northwest flow behind the low will keep temperatures from reaching the low 40's, but the sun give highs a boost into the upper 30's to near 40. Tomorrow night, skies will clear up a bit more, and radiational cooling will drop lows down into the low teens. Thursday will feature increasing cloudiness as low pressure approaches from the Plains states. Highs will be kept to the mid 30's under cloudy skies.

Thursday Night, snow moves in. The GFS has trended toward a colder solution and the Euro is beginning to follow suit. The NWS has introduced enhanced wording including "moderate snow accumulation possible" for Thursday Night. Friday still looks like an icy mess. Precipitation will be in the form of sleet and snow through 6am, before changing to freezing rain later Friday morning. Right now, it appears that temperatures at the surface will at least be cold enough for all frozen precipitation. Closer to the coast, including Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and Boston, precipitation will probably change to rain for at least a couple of hours as temperatures reach 40. A change back to snow everywhere north of the Mass Turnpike will occur Friday evening, and we could pick up some additional light accumulation. Precipitation will continue through Saturday morning, changing to a mix of rain and snow before tapering off. Saturday will probably be the warmest day this week with temperatures reaching the low 40's as an enhanced southerly flow from the Great Lakes low kicks in. Still the same from yesterday, the precipitation type and snow accumulation will depend on the final track of the coastal low. This will depend on the amount of energy transfered from the Lakes low to the coastal. What we will have to watch (once the coastal low develops) are the pressure falls in both areas. The greater the pressure falls along the coast, the further east the low goes, the stronger the low gets, and the more snow we get. Right now, I'm thinking total snowfall of 3 to 6 inches with this storm. The GFSX MOS data gives Keene 6 inches. One thing is for sure, QPF is going to be high. Areas north and west of Concord, NH could get hit hard with over a foot of snow. So if we can get some colder air to work with, we could see that amount of snow from this storm too ... but at this point dont count on it.

Sunday and Monday, skies will remain mostly cloudy as the Great Lakes low lifts north of us, and continues to influence our weather. Temperatures will slowly drop back to the mid 30's by Monday as the southerly flow is cut off, and westerly flow kicks in.