Essentially, everything has been moved west and amplified quite a bit. The NAM is the only one now that suppresses the precipitation south of the region, so have went ahead and given New England widespread 8" - 16" amounts.
The NWS has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of SNE including Cheshire County, and is calling for 8 to 15 inches of snow. The updated zone forecast calls for 8 to 13 inches of snow. The latest point forecast calls for 12 to 20 inches of snow. There is agreement among the models for at least an inch of QPF, maybe two inches, and MOS data is calling for generally over 10 inches.
The two major factors that will decide whether we get 8 inches or 28 inches is how far north the upper level warmth gets and where the frontogenisis banding sets up.
***Final***
Snow and sleet accumulation forecast for 12z Thursday - 12z Sunday for Keene, NH (issued at 1655 3/15): 8" - 14"
Forecast for selected cities:
Hartford, CT ___ 5" - 10"
Boston, MA ___ 3" - 6" (6" - 12" NW)
Worcester, MA ___ 7" - 14"
Lewiston, ME ___ 7" - 14"
Concord, NH ___ 10" - 20"
Albany, NY ___ 10" - 20"
New York City, NY ___ 3" - 6" (6" - 12" NW)
Providence, RI ___ 2" - 4" (4" - 8" NW)
Rutland, VT ___ 9" - 18"
*all forecast snow and sleet accumulation is for the peak depth of new snow and sleet before compression.
Regional discussion:
Main factor here is the length of time with all snow. There is an overall consensus of QPF over 3 inches from DC to Boston with forecasts for isolated 5 inch amounts between now and Sunday. Fluctuating with the location, Im expecting an 1 to 1.5 inches to be in the form of snow or sleet with the ratio setting up around 5:1.
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