Models shift east, watching current development closely

This is prime model watching time. We are around the 48hr mark until the storm arrives. After 36hrs, nowcasting begins.

Already I've started the nowcasting because we do have our low developed and ready, just now entering western TX. The track of this low will be an important observation as to compare it to the model forecasts. A more southerly track at this stage would be more conducive to a snowier solution out 48 hours.

The GFS shifted east slightly by about 10 miles in its 06z run, and the 12z run has shifted east another 30 to 35 miles. The NAM has also shifted east.
The 12z runs of the NAM and GFS are now somewhat alike. However, 850mb 0C has not retreated south much. We will have to watch to see if these trends continue.





Right now, Im looking at anywhere from 3 to 12 inches of snow in Keene through Wednesday. The NWS is going conservative and with the warmer GFS after the NAM didnt perform very well with the last system. The zone includes "light snow accumulation" for Sunday Night and again on Monday, which translates to about 1 to 4 inches. The HPC forecast from this morning included Keene in the moderate (>40%) chance of >4", the moderate chance of >8", and even included us in the slight (>10%) chance of >12".

In the short term, the HPC forecast track has shifted south from this mornings. The latest forecast also includes a 978mb low slamming into CT!

For nowcasting purposes (The storm system is currently (18z 4/13) entering western Texas):

compare with HPC:


As a final note, the NWSs in Binghamton, NY, State College, PA, Philidelphia, PA, and Albany NY have issued Winter Storm Watches for central and eastern PA and all of NY except extreme northern and western areas. The text includes "SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD WELL EXCEED A FOOT BY LATE MONDAY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA."

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Flood potential:
I will focus more closely on this tomorrow morning. There is probably a greater potential for flooding than there is for over a foot of snow in Keene. That is just the way this storm will most likely turn out. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is likely. The rainfall combined with the recent snows could cause rivers to rise to bankfull. Flood warnings have been issued in the Upton NWS portion of southwest CT. I expect Taunton to follow suit for most of SNE when their evening products are issued.

Stay tuned.