Severe thunderstorms heading our way

Our first signifcant convective outbreak is underway in the northeast. Already, numerous thunderstorm cells have strengthened to severe levels across NY, VT, and MA. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued to the west of New England.

Latest SPC Discussion:

  ...NERN U.S...
   UPR LOW WRN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH
   REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
   ZONE STRETCHING FROM ERN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO ERN OH CHARACTERIZED
   BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG
   ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S ARE REACHED.  INITIALLY
   SHEAR IN THIS WARM SECTOR IS WEAK AS REFLECTED BY 12Z ALB SOUNDING. 
   HOWEVER AS UPR LOW MOVES EWD MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT BY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SURFACE
   BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
   ZONE WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLY LOW
   WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM 8-9K FEET.  LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ALSO
   LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER OVERALL WEAK
   SHEAR PRECLUDES AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
   DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

Keene currently has a strong thunderstorm cell with hail estimates of 1.0" bearing down on Cheshire County.


Latest regional radar:


Stay tuned