More wintry potential next week

The storm system scooting through on Tuesday will likely be low amplitude, fast moving, and ride the Canadian border in zonal flow. However, model guidance continues to advertise marginal criteria for snow mixing in down into northwest Massachusetts. No accumulation is expected, but up to an inch in the high elevations further north.

Believe it or not we have another potential storm to discuss for late next week. The GFS and ECM are on board with low pressure ejecting out of Texas on Thursday and moving to the Carolina coast by late Friday. This storm coincides with a negative AO and NAO and rising PNA in the west. The GFS ensembles bring the low up toward the Great Lakes. The ECM brings low pressure near the Cape Saturday morning. Both senarios would still likely drop accumulating snows on the front end of the storm. The main difference between the two is the magnitude of ridging out west and how much the -EPO breaks down. The operational GFS is a little different altogether as it develops a lead short wave that affects New England Thursday night. This is more unlikely though and the second wave should become predominant in the next few days of runs.

Anyway, some interesting bits to keep an eye on this week. Even first flakes would be fairly early, let alone accumulating snows. It's six days away and it's October, so Murphy's Law should be kept in mind.