Briefly, to start, model guidance has cut back QPF for tonight into tomorrow, still with a wide expanse of .5"+. The main effect in this case is further north where accumulation becomes a concern. The potential for trace+ will be mainly in the higher elevations north of a line from Lebanon to Laconia, NH. Some wet snow flakes could mix in down into SW NH.
The next system to discuss is much more complicated and also has more potential. The ECM has been fairly adament about developing low pressure in Texas and moving it off the Carolina coast toward New England on Friday. The GFS has been less steady. There are three separate pieces of energy to consider. The first wave remains weak and scoots out to sea on Thursday, however depending on how fast and amplified it becomes, it may have an effect on the following waves. The second wave is prefered for further development, however the third wave may interfere and that is where the GFS has been tripping. If the third wave, closely following its neighbor, intensifies, it basically causes a cancelling effect ultimately weakening both systems.
The ECM strengthens wave #2, and rotates the energy northward, east of New England. At the surface, low pressure strengthens near the 40/70 benchmark, drawing cold air south and producing inland snows. The potential continues for a notable early season snowfall for central and northern New England, however there is a lot that needs to be ironed out.
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